Daily metals

This Morning Nickel is setting the pace early today, rising 1.1% from Wednesday’s official close to $16,890 a tonne. Tin follows with a 0.6% gain to $54,785, while copper and aluminium are each about 0.1% firmer at $14,267 and $3,220 respectively. Zinc has retreated 0.6% to $3,870 despite continued signs of physical tightness, and lead is down 0.4% at $1,865. The overall tone is positive but selective, with zinc’s pullback suggesting some profit-taking after its extended rally. Macro & Geopolitics European risk sentiment has improved after Nvidia’s strong earnings and forecast of a 70% jump in revenue next fiscal year lifted Asian technology shares and U.S. equity futures. The supportive equity backdrop is tempered by U.S. inflation: July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year on year, keeping the prospect of further Federal Reserve tightening alive before Chair Kevin Warsh speaks on Friday. Brent crude has fallen for a fourth session to around $87 a barrel as Qatar seeks to restart diplomacy with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. However, shipping remains constrained, refined-fuel costs are elevated and Thursday’s Russian attack on an industrial facility in Kryvyi Rih underscores continuing supply-chain risks. Base Metals Zinc entered Thursday with seven consecutive advances behind it, supported by scarce metal outside China and an LME cash-to-three-month backwardation approaching $199 a tonne. The global refined market recorded a 31,400-tonne deficit in June, although a first-half surplus and relatively high exchange stocks leave the rally vulnerable to a speculative unwind. Copper remains supported by declining accessible inventories, while Nvidia’s strong outlook adds to longer-term expectations for power-grid and data-centre demand. South32 said copper generated more than half of its earnings excluding aluminium, and Boliden’s planned acquisition of control of Nexa Resources underscores strategic interest in zinc and silver. Lead faces a softer fundamental picture after the global market moved into surplus in June. Precious Metals Gold recovered 0.6% to around $4,619 an ounce this morning as concerns about U.S. debt and currency debasement offset pressure from elevated inflation and potential rate increases. Silver gained 1.2% to $68.88, platinum rose 0.9% to $1,844.78 and palladium added 0.2% to $1,331.50. Harmony Gold’s annual profit jumped 87% and it declared a record dividend, illustrating the benefit of record gold prices despite a 3% decline in gold production. Steel British vehicle production fell 11.6% year on year in July as weaker exports and earlier maintenance shutdowns reduced activity, signalling softer near-term demand for automotive steel and recyclable manufacturing scrap. Trade friction remains another constraint after Washington announced a 50% levy on Canadian vehicles, auto parts and trucks, effective January 1, while U.S.-Canada discussions have also covered protection for steel and aluminium. In Germany, export expectations improved for automotive and fabricated-metal manufacturers, but companies in metal production and processing remained pessimistic. Missile damage at an industrial site in Kryvyi Rih, a major Ukrainian steel and mining centre, adds a further regional supply risk. Rare Earth Metals Brazil is attracting further investment aimed at moving rare-earth supply beyond raw-material exports. St George Mining and Lima & Pergher plan a separation and processing centre in Uberlandia, with expected investment of 2 billion reais and capacity to handle about 50,000 tonnes of carbonate annually around 2030. Commercial operations are targeted for 2029, although ownership and funding commitments remain undecided. Vale is separately studying whether rare earths, gold and other minerals can be recovered from existing mining waste, potentially reducing waste generation and increasing the reuse of previously extracted materials. Forex The dollar index held near a one-week high at 99.12 after firmer U.S. inflation reinforced expectations that interest rates may rise before year-end. The euro was around $1.1653 late Wednesday, slightly weaker following the data, increasing the local-currency cost of dollar-denominated metals for eurozone buyers. Lower oil prices provide some relief for Europe’s import bill, but the benefit remains dependent on progress over Hormuz shipping. Fed communication remains the principal currency risk, with a hawkish message likely to strengthen the dollar further against the euro. Watch Today Germany’s September consumer-sentiment reading is due alongside French producer-price and unemployment data and eurozone M3 money-supply figures. U.S. weekly jobless claims and a $44 billion seven-year Treasury auction may influence the dollar and bond yields later in the session. Traders will also monitor Qatar’s diplomatic visit to Tehran for any concrete progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.