Metals Daily

This Morning Copper is trading at $13,225 this Tuesday morning, down 0.4% from Monday's official close of $13,275. Aluminium is the weakest performer, off 1.0% at $3,522 versus Monday's $3,558 close. Tin has shed 0.6% to $50,395, nickel is marginally softer at $18,215 (−0.1%), and zinc has slipped 0.3% to $3,391. Lead is essentially flat at $1,974. The complex is under modest pressure as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire — set to expire Wednesday — hangs by a thread, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed to commercial traffic and oil prices elevated near $95/bbl Brent. Macro & Geopolitics The fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire dominated Monday's session after the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship over the weekend, prompting Tehran to vow retaliation and initially refuse a second round of talks. A senior Iranian official later told Reuters that Tehran is considering sending delegates to Islamabad, but no decision has been made. Oil surged roughly 5.6% on Monday, with Brent settling at $95.48/bbl and WTI at $89.61. Wall Street dipped modestly — the Nasdaq snapped a 13-day winning streak — while the dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.07. Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing for Fed Chair begins today at 1400 GMT, with his independence from the White House a key focus. Base Metals Monday's LME session saw copper lose 0.5% to $13,273 as the Strait of Hormuz closure reignited growth fears. However, resilient Chinese demand provided a floor — SHFE copper stocks fell 9.8% week-on-week to 240,456 tonnes, down nearly 45% since mid-March, even as LME stocks remain near a 12-year high of almost 400,000 tonnes. Gulf aluminium production fell 6% month-on-month in March according to preliminary IAI data, with final figures expected to be worse. Nickel gained 0.7% on Monday, supported by sulphuric acid shortages hitting Indonesian producers and concerns over a new ore pricing formula. Trafigura is shipping U.S. sulphur to the DRC as the copper belt seeks alternatives to war-disrupted Middle Eastern supply. China's March refined copper output jumped 8.7% year-on-year to 1.33 million tonnes. In Argentina, police blocked road access to BHP/Lundin's Vicuna copper megaproject over a judicial order citing environmental concerns. Precious Metals Gold fell to a one-week low on Monday as the firmer dollar and rising oil prices weighed on the non-yielding metal. Spot gold settled around $4,810, down 0.4%, and has eased further this morning to approximately $4,796. "The situation in the Middle East has clearly intensified again, shifting our gold forecast tilted slightly to the downside amid increased risks of another sharp spike in oil prices," said analysts at City Index. Silver lost 1.3% to $79.76, platinum fell 1.4% to $2,073, and palladium dipped 0.2%. Russia's central bank has sold 0.7 million troy ounces of gold so far in 2026 as part of reserve diversification, contrasting with continued buying by China and Brazil. Steel Steel Dynamics reported a strong Q1, with revenue of $5.20 billion beating estimates, driven by higher steel prices from tighter supply as U.S. imports fell to multi-year lows. CEO Mark Millett said conditions support strong domestic steel and aluminium consumption through 2026 and beyond. Tokyo Steel announced a second consecutive monthly price hike across all products for May, citing surging raw material and energy costs from the Middle East conflict. Mexico's President Sheinbaum signalled interest in reaching an early agreement on steel, aluminium and autos ahead of the formal USMCA review, with bilateral talks now set for the week of May 25. JSW Steel and POSCO announced a joint venture for a 6 MTPA integrated steel plant in India. Rare Earth Metals USA Rare Earth agreed to acquire Brazil's Serra Verde for $2.8 billion, gaining control of the Pela Ema mine — described as the only producer outside Asia supplying all four magnetic rare earths at scale. The deal includes a 15-year offtake at set prices (NdPr at $110/kg, dysprosium at $575/kg, terbium at $2,050/kg) backed by a U.S. government-capitalised SPV. Separately, Lynas Rare Earths reported a more than twofold jump in Q3 revenue to A$265 million, citing a 25% rise in NdPr selling prices and urgent customer demand for non-Chinese supply chains. Japan announced plans to spend $6 billion on recycling critical minerals and plastics through the end of the decade. Forex The dollar index slipped 0.4% on Monday to 98.07, reversing early gains as markets grew cautiously optimistic that U.S.-Iran talks would eventually resume. The euro edged up 0.2% to $1.1785, holding near pre-war highs. Sterling traded at $1.3523. The yen weakened slightly, with dollar-yen at 158.83. Bitcoin gained 2% to $76,170. Watch Today Germany's April ZEW economic sentiment index (0900 GMT) will be closely watched after March's dramatic plunge; any recovery would signal improving confidence in Europe's largest economy. UK employment data for February lands at 0600 GMT. U.S. retail sales for March are due at 1230 GMT. Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing for Fed Chair (1400 GMT) could move rate expectations — his stance on balance sheet policy and independence from the White House will be scrutinised.