Metals Daily

This Morning Base metals are mixed on Friday against Thursday’s official close. Lead leads the gains, up 0.8% at $1,874/t, followed by tin, up 0.4% at $53,255/t, and copper, up 0.2% at $13,615/t. Nickel is the weakest contract, falling 0.8% to $16,900/t, while aluminium is down 0.5% at $3,173.50/t and zinc has eased 0.3% to $3,576/t. Macro & Geopolitics Oil is the dominant cross-market shock after Brent settled above $100/bbl following attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and further escalation in the conflict involving Iran. The inflation threat has driven government bond yields sharply higher, with markets assigning a one-in-three probability to a Federal Reserve rate increase next week. The European Central Bank held rates at 2.25% on Thursday, but a September increase remains strongly priced as policymakers assess the energy shock. New U.S. tariffs of 10% or 12.5% have also taken effect across 60 trading partners, including the EU, although products already covered by national-security duties—including autos, steel, aluminium and copper—are exempt. Base Metals Copper is slightly firmer this morning but remains below its midweek peak as the oil-driven deterioration in global growth expectations offsets tight physical availability. LME stocks stabilised following heavy warrant cancellations, while the Yangshan import premium retreated from a multi-year high as elevated prices discouraged Chinese buying. Analysts have raised their 2026 copper price expectations, although the consensus remains below current levels and now assumes a market surplus of about 112,000 tonnes. Aluminium retains stronger structural support, with a one-million-tonne deficit forecast this year. Nickel remains pressured by expectations of surplus supply, while new EU sanctions on Russian metal ores and unwrought zinc could reshape European physical flows. Precious Metals Gold has extended Thursday’s steep decline, falling 0.4% to around $4,030/oz as higher oil prices, bond yields and rate expectations outweigh safe-haven demand. Silver is down 0.7% near $57.29/oz but remains on course for a weekly gain. Platinum has dropped 1.3% to about $1,579/oz and palladium is 1.5% lower near $1,238/oz. Newmont’s quarterly profit exceeded expectations, although lower production and the prospect of higher energy-related costs remain important considerations for miners. Steel North American trade negotiations remain a key risk for international steel flows. Mexico is seeking relief from the U.S. Section 232 tariffs on Mexican and Canadian steel and aluminium before offering concessions in wider USMCA talks. Washington is simultaneously pushing for more U.S.-specific automotive content and reduced dependence on Asian inputs. The new forced-labour tariffs do not apply to steel already covered by Section 232, leaving existing sectoral duties as the main constraint. Rare Earth Metals Europe’s drive to secure critical-mineral supply is accelerating. Sweden has classified mining of critical metals and rare earths as a national-security interest, aiming to speed permitting and investment around resources including the Per Geijer deposit near Kiruna. Separately, USA Rare Earth and InfraVia have each agreed to acquire 13.6% stakes in French processor Carester. The investment supports a heavy rare-earth separation and magnet-recycling facility in Lacq scheduled for commissioning later this year, adding to non-Chinese processing capacity. Forex The euro remains below $1.14 after the ECB left rates unchanged while preserving the possibility of tightening in September. A firmer dollar, supported by rising Treasury yields and risk aversion, is increasing the euro cost of dollar-denominated metals and energy. The dollar index is holding near 101.46, while the yen is close to a 40-year low around 163.9 per dollar despite intervention warnings from Tokyo. South Korea’s won has strengthened to roughly 1,462 per dollar even as the country’s equity market suffers a sharp technology-led sell-off. Watch Today Flash July PMIs are due from the eurozone at 10:00 CEST, Britain at 10:30 CEST and the United States at 15:45 CEST, offering an early test of whether the energy shock is affecting industrial activity. UK June retail sales are scheduled for 08:00 CEST, while comments from ECB chief economist Philip Lane may influence European rate expectations.