Metals Daily

This Morning Base metals were mixed at 07:00 on Monday compared with Friday’s official close. Lead was the strongest mover, up 0.7% at $1,865 per tonne, followed by zinc, up 0.3% at $3,601.50, and nickel, up 0.1% at $17,200. Tin led the declines, falling 0.6% to $53,250, while copper and aluminium were each down 0.2% at $13,617 and $3,153.50, respectively. The restrained opening reflected relief over lower oil prices, tempered by uncertainty ahead of this week’s central-bank decisions. Macro & Geopolitics A tentative pause in U.S.-Iran attacks removed part of the immediate energy and inflation premium, sending Brent down 5.2% to $91.73 a barrel. The retreat supported bonds, with the U.S. 10-year yield falling four basis points to 4.63%, and improved the tone of European equity futures. Risks remained elevated after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installations kept Red Sea shipping security in focus. Markets still assigned roughly a one-in-three probability to a Federal Reserve rate increase at this week’s meeting, while the Bank of England and Bank of Japan were expected to hold rates later in the week. Singapore unexpectedly tightened monetary policy on Monday. Base Metals Copper was supported by cheaper oil, a softer dollar and declining exchange inventories, although its early price slipped below Friday’s official close. Chinese warehouse stocks fell 12.9% last week to their lowest since February 2024, while LME holdings were at their lowest since March. Aluminium remained divided between subdued futures and a tight physical market: Gulf smelter disruption reduced output by more than two million tonnes on an annualised basis, yet rising Chinese and Indonesian exports softened the headline price impact. Vietnam has also produced its first primary aluminium ingots. Lead and zinc outperformed this morning, while tin retreated despite earlier Asian strength and nickel was little changed. Precious Metals Gold rose 0.9% to around $4,088 an ounce as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns and the dollar weakened ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Silver gained 1.7% to $59.16, while platinum advanced 1.5% to $1,612 and palladium rose 1.6% to about $1,264. Near-term direction remained closely tied to whether the Gulf pause holds and keeps energy prices and bond yields contained. Steel Indian pipe producer Welspun Corp received an order worth about 9.6 billion rupees. The announcement pointed to continued activity in energy and infrastructure projects, although it provided no evidence of a broad recovery in Asian or European steel demand. Rare Earth Metals Lynas Rare Earths and South Korea’s LS Eco Energy signed binding agreements for cross-subscription of convertible instruments worth about A$29 million. The companies are also working toward a long-term metal-processing agreement in Vietnam, where LS Eco Energy plans to construct a new rare-earth metal facility. The arrangement supports efforts to expand rare-earth processing capacity outside China and diversify supply chains. Forex The euro rose about 0.3% to around $1.1408 as the dollar’s support from safe-haven demand and inflation concerns faded with the drop in oil prices. The dollar index declined roughly 0.3%, modestly reducing the euro cost of dollar-priced metals. The yen strengthened slightly but remained weak near 163.5 per dollar. South Korea’s won moved in the opposite direction, slipping to about 1,465 per dollar as foreign investors sold domestic equities ahead of major technology earnings. Watch Today Germany’s July Ifo business-climate survey and U.S. durable-goods data for June are due. Markets will also continue to assess the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on July 28-29, followed later in the week by meetings of the Bank of England and Bank of Japan.