Metals Daily

This Morning Base metals were uniformly firmer early Thursday than Wednesday’s official close. Lead and tin were the strongest performers, up 0.6% and 0.6% at $1,876 and $53,900 per tonne, respectively. Nickel and zinc gained 0.4% and 0.4% to $17,000 and $3,582, while aluminium rose 0.3% to $3,189.50. Copper was up 0.2% at $13,610. Macro & Geopolitics The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, with three policymakers favouring an increase, while Chair Kevin Warsh offered limited guidance on the next move. Expectations of a September hike eased to around 60%, weighing on the dollar. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries climbed to a 19-year high as investors questioned the Fed’s inflation strategy. Brent crude retreated below $90 a barrel after rising more than 7% on Wednesday. Fresh U.S. strikes on Iran continued to leave the outlook for European energy costs vulnerable to further disruption. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates on Thursday. Euro zone growth and sentiment data, German inflation and U.S. PCE data will provide further tests of markets’ monetary-policy assumptions. Base Metals Copper was supported by the softer dollar and signs of tightening physical availability. Available LME copper stocks stood at about 102,000 tonnes, while Shanghai inventories had fallen to 69,610 tonnes and the Yangshan import premium had risen to a four-year high, indicating intensifying competition for material. Uncertainty over potential U.S. copper tariffs continues to divert supplies toward CME warehouses, increasing the risk of prolonged regional price dislocations. Aluminium remained supported by Middle East supply exposure and exceptionally low LME inventories, much of which is Russian-origin metal avoided by some buyers. Lead and tin led the morning’s gains, while nickel and zinc also benefited from the broader post-Fed move. Precious Metals Gold slipped 0.4% to $4,048.39 an ounce as rising Treasury yields outweighed the benefit of a softer dollar and continuing Middle East hostilities. Markets still assign roughly a 65% probability to a September Fed increase, leaving bullion sensitive to Thursday’s U.S. inflation data. Silver fell 0.6% to $57.30, platinum declined 1.1% to $1,593.77 and palladium rose 0.6% to $1,253.25. Steel ArcelorMittal’s second-quarter core earnings reached $2.06 billion, modestly exceeding expectations, as stronger European order books and new EU import safeguards improved the regional outlook. European crude-steel production increased by about 11% from the first quarter following the restart of facilities in Spain and a blast furnace in Poland. The group expects higher shipments in the third quarter and the second half of the year. The developments point to improving mill utilisation and feedstock demand, although the 7.5% decline in first-half UK vehicle production shows that important downstream sectors remain subdued. Rare Earth Metals Japan’s JOGMEC will invest up to C$47.7 million in Toyota Tsusho’s Lofdal heavy rare-earth project in Namibia, which contains dysprosium and terbium used in permanent magnets. A commercialisation decision is targeted for the financial year ending March 2027. Separately, Energy Fuels has begun a roughly $104 million expansion of its Utah processing operation. Circuits for dysprosium and terbium are expected to be completed by the end of 2027, with other circuits due by the end of 2028. The projects would strengthen non-Chinese supply options, although they are not expected to provide immediate additional supply. Forex The dollar fell to a one-week low after the divided Fed decision reduced expectations of an immediate tightening move. The euro strengthened to around $1.1447 against the dollar late Wednesday, partly cushioning European buyers from higher dollar-denominated metal prices. That advantage remains fragile because sharply higher long-term U.S. yields could revive demand for the dollar if inflation data surprise on the upside. Sterling is also in focus ahead of the Bank of England decision, particularly given the inflation threat from elevated energy costs. Watch Today The Bank of England announces its decision at 13:00 CET, followed by preliminary German inflation data at 14:00 CET. U.S. second-quarter GDP, June PCE inflation and weekly jobless claims are scheduled for 14:30 CET. Anglo American’s results will provide additional signals on mining output, costs and capital allocation.