Metals Daily

This Morning At 7 on Monday, August 3, LME base metals were mostly higher than Friday’s official close. Lead led the advance, rising 1.0% to $1,851.50 per tonne, followed by zinc, up 0.8% at $3,671. Copper gained 0.3% to $13,834.50 and aluminium added 0.2% to $3,189. Tin was the weakest metal, falling 0.5% to $54,655, while nickel declined 0.2% to $17,025. Macro & Geopolitics Oil prices retreated after U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with Iran would take place on Monday and held off on fresh military action. Brent crude fell more than 4% to around $84 a barrel, while European equity futures rose about 0.7% and long-dated U.S. Treasury yields moved lower. Asian sentiment remained fragile amid heavy technology-stock losses and concerns about the returns from large AI investments. Japan and the United States confirmed coordinated yen-buying intervention, their first joint operation of its kind since 2011. The move reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan may need to raise interest rates, although analysts said intervention alone is unlikely to reverse the yen’s broader depreciation trend. Base Metals Nickel remained under pressure after Indonesia clarified that its prohibition on exporting rare earths does not automatically cover minerals in which rare earths occur only as byproducts. The clarification covers products including nickel pig iron, mixed hydroxide precipitate, bauxite, alumina and copper cathodes. More than 100 delayed vessels can now sail, easing fears of a prolonged disruption to Indonesian mineral shipments. Authorities said surveyors would soon issue 85 previously delayed reports. Concentration limits, laboratory-testing standards and verification procedures remain under discussion, leaving some regulatory uncertainty around byproduct exports. Chinese manufacturing indicators also softened. The private July manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 from 51.7 in June, below the 51.5 consensus forecast. Growth in new orders slowed to its weakest level since January, while manufacturers reduced purchasing activity for the first time since November. Copper held firm, while zinc and lead outperformed in early trading. Marubeni said copper prices should remain supported over the medium to long term by demand from the AI and semiconductor sectors. It expects aluminium prices to trend higher over the longer term, although they may remain around current levels during the second half of fiscal 2026. Precious Metals Gold rose 0.7% to about $4,069 an ounce as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns and yen intervention put pressure on the U.S. dollar. Silver advanced 1.4% to $58.46, palladium gained 1.6% to $1,293.50 and platinum increased 0.5% to $1,650.63. The gains remain vulnerable to renewed escalation in the Middle East or stronger U.S. employment data, either of which could revive expectations of higher interest rates. Steel Hyundai Steel reported second-quarter operating profit of 57.7 billion won, down 43% from a year earlier, indicating continued pressure on earnings at the Asian steelmaker. In construction materials, Holcim agreed to sell its Philippines business to China’s Huaxin Building Materials for at least $807 million. Holcim will sell an initial 68% stake for $527 million and plans to sell its remaining stake over the next three to five years for at least $280 million. The proceeds will be used to fund acquisitions and further investment in its existing businesses. Rare Earth Metals Indonesia has resumed exports of minerals containing rare earths as incidental byproducts, including alumina, copper cathodes and nickel derivatives. Authorities said the restriction applies when rare earths are the primary export product, allowing more than 100 delayed ships to depart and 85 outstanding survey reports to be processed. Concentration limits, testing standards and verification procedures remain under discussion. The clarification restores near-term mineral flows while leaving uncertainty around future controls and Indonesia’s broader ambition to develop a domestic rare-earth industry. Forex The yen strengthened about 0.5% to 156.47 per dollar after Japan and the United States confirmed coordinated intervention, moving further away from the 163.99 level reached in July, its lowest in about 40 years. Analysts said the yen’s gains may prove difficult to sustain without narrower U.S.-Japanese interest-rate differentials and further monetary-policy support from the Bank of Japan. The currency move also pressured the dollar, helping support dollar-denominated bullion and other commodities. Watch Today Markets will follow July manufacturing PMI releases from France, Germany, the eurozone and the United Kingdom, as well as German retail-sales data. Swiss July inflation and manufacturing PMI figures, along with SNB sight-deposit data, are also due. U.S. S&P Global and ISM manufacturing surveys will follow later in the day. Traders will also monitor the scheduled U.S.-Iran talks for implications for oil prices, inflation expectations and industrial risk appetite.