Theme of the Day: Global Copper Market in 213kt Surplus in Jan-Apr 2026

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for Apr world copper supply and demand in its Jun 2026 Copper Bulletin. In Q126, the world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), indicated a surplus of 239kt. This compares with a surplus of about 47kt in the same period of 2025. Adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks suggested a market surplus of 213kt. Preliminary data indicates that world copper mine production declined by 1.4% in the first four months of 2026, with a decline in concentrate production of -2.7% more than offsetting an increase in solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) of 3.5%. Although global mine production benefited from additional output from projects ramping up to capacity in a number of countries, global growth was offset by important declines in concentrate production in Chile, DRC, and Indonesia. In Indonesia, concentrate production declined by 40% as output at the Grasberg mine remains constrained by the impact of a severe mud rush incident that occurred last Sep. Chilean mine production declined by 7.9% as higher output at Collahuasi, Anglo Sur and Quebrada Blanca was more than offset by reductions mainly at Candelaria, El Teniente, Escondida, Los Pelambres and Spence mines. Mine production in the DRC is estimated to have remained essentially unchanged: growth of about 8.5% in SX-EW output has been offset by a 33% decline in concentrate production, due to reduced output at Kamoa mine (impact of a seismic event in 2025). In Peru, copper mine production rose by 3.6% mainly due to increases at Antamina, Las Bambas and Antapaccay mines that more than offset small declines at the Southern Peru Copper, Quellaveco, Toromocho, Cerro Verde and Marcobre operations. Mongolian copper concentrate production is estimated to have grown by about 29% as a consequence of the Oyu Tolgoy UG project ramp-up. Preliminary data indicate that world refined copper production grew by about 4% in the first four months of 2026 with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) growing by 3.5% and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 6.8%. Production in China and the DRC, that currently represent about 60% of global production, is estimated to have increased by a combined 7.6% (China 7.4% and DRC 8.4%). World refined copper output excluding these two countries declined by about -0.6%. Chilean refined copper production declined by -11%, with electrolytic production (from concentrates) down by 26%, impacted by smelter operational constraints and maintenance, and electrowinning (SX-EW) output lower by 3.4%. Output in Asia (ex-China) is estimated to have declined by 1.3% mainly due to lower output in Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines. Production in India is estimated to have increased by 28% due to improved operating capacity rates and the ramp-up of the Adani refinery. Global secondary refined production (from scrap) increased by 6.8% mainly due to growth in China. Preliminary data suggests that world apparent refined copper usage increased by 2% in the first four months of 2026. World ex-China usage is estimated to have increased by 1.4% and Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks) is estimated to have increased by 2.4%. Chinese net refined copper imports declined by 25%. China's share of total world refined copper usage is currently ~59%. As of the end of May 2026, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 1,144,966t (highest level since Jan 2003). Stocks increased by 400,851t (+54%) compared with stocks held at the end of Dec 2025, and were up at the LME (+240,725t), at SHFE (+31,072t) and COMEX (+129,054t).