Copper hits record high above $12,000 a ton on weaker dollar and supply outlook

Copper prices hit a record high on Tuesday, crossing the $12,000 mark as thin year-end trade extended momentum for speculative buying on a weaker dollar and worries about tighter supply.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.8% at $12,023.50 a metric ton by 1109 GMT after touching a record $12,038.50.

The dollar index fell while the Chinese yuan climbed to a 15-month high against the U.S. currency, making dollar-priced metals more attractive for buyers in the top metals consumer.

The Yangshan premium <SMM-CUYP-CN>, an indicator of Chinese appetite for copper imports, rose 15% to a three-month high of $55 a ton.

Heading for the biggest annual gain since 2009, copper is up 37% this year after mine supply disruptions, outflows of stocks to the U.S. and bets that demand for copper will benefit from the green energy transition.

From the point of view of global supply, there is no shortage of the metal. The International Copper Study Group estimates that the market had a surplus of 122,000 tons for the first 10 months of the year.

However, copper has been flooding into the United States, <HG-STX-COMEX> tightening availability in traditional consuming centres on the prospect of President Donald Trump placing an import tariff on refined copper from 2027.

Exports of refined copper from China surged in November to their second-highest monthly level on record, with more than a third of shipments bound for the United States.

Goldman Sachs expects the copper price to consolidate in 2026 and average $11,400, with tariff uncertainty lingering.

Under the bank's base case scenario prices will edge down in the second half of 2026 and early 2027 once the U.S. starts to run down its stockpiles.

Among other LME metals, nickel jumped 2% to $15,580 a ton after touching $15,590 for its highest since October 9 on bets that Indonesia could reduce mine output in 2026.

Aluminium added 0.8% to $2,964 a ton, zinc gained 1.3% to $3,124.50, lead was up 1% at $1,990.50 and tin rose 1.1% to $43,305.