Copper prices climbed on Tuesday as the dollar weakened after Israel and Iran agreed to halt attacks on each other, while visible metal inventories outside the United States tightened further.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8% to $13,728 a metric ton by 0951 GMT, facing resistance from the 21-day moving average at $13,735. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.2%, though the markets were awaiting U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday for clues on the Federal Reserve's next moves. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced metals more attractive for buyers using other currencies. The premium at which COMEX copper contracts are trading over the LME benchmark also supported copper prices ahead of a recommendation from the U.S. Department of Commerce on possible import tariffs. The premium is attracting inflows to COMEX copper stocks in the U.S., while available stocks in LME-registered warehouses were at 228,650 tons, according to daily LME data, the lowest since February 19. Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect a decision on U.S. copper import tariffs sometime in the second half of 2026, once President Donald Trump has received an update on domestic markets due by end-June. An advanced notice of a 15% tariff from January 2027 would drive COMEX and LME copper higher and tighten LME spreads, while ruling out tariffs would remove about 2.5% of annualised global copper demand going to the U.S. for stockpiling, Morgan Stanley said in its note.
Its analysts estimate year-to-date "over-importing" by the U.S. at 260,000 tons, with the country holding over a year of "normal" refined copper imports in inventory. Among other LME metals, aluminium fell 0.8% to $3,575.50 after hitting a three-week low of $3,570.5 pressured by Iran's and Israel's agreement to halt attacks, though Tehran continued to block most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Zinc rose 1.1% to $3,575.50. Goldman Sachs said Boliden's Garpenberg mine could "structurally reset to a lower production level for longer" following a seismic event in March. Lead fell 0.1% to $1,987, nickel was down 0.6% at $18,230 and tin rose 1.4% to $52,880. Lead and nickel hit their lowest since May 21 and April 23, respectively, earlier in the session.
