Daily metals
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This Morning
LME cash prices are lower across the board. Nickel leads the decline at –1.5% (cash $16,603), followed by tin –1.4% ($45,673), copper –0.8% ($12,726), zinc –0.3% ($3,272) and aluminium –0.1% ($2,998). Lead is unchanged at $1,907. The pattern is textbook risk-off: the higher-beta names (nickel, tin) are taking the biggest hit while the most liquid metals drift lower. Three-month tin has shed over $660 and nickel $260 from yesterday's settlement. No sign yet of dip-buying interest strong enough to reverse the move.
Metals & Macro Drivers
A wider risk-off tone, sharp pullback in tech and crypto, rising anxiety about U.S. labour, is reinforcing defensive positioning and thinning liquidity across cyclicals. That strengthens the USD, raises real-rate expectations, and discourages momentum length in copper/aluminium/nickel. This morning's price action confirms the dynamic is still in play: de-risking hits liquid metals first, then spills into the higher-beta complex as CTAs and discretionary desks reduce exposure.
Rio Tinto and Glencore ended merger talks at the February 5 UK takeover code deadline, unable to agree on valuation and governance — the latest failed attempt in a string stretching back to 2008. Glencore shares fell as much as 11% in London. The market had priced in optionality around accelerated copper investment and portfolio optimization; that is now gone, and attention snaps back to organic project timelines and permitting risk. The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%. President Lagarde said the bank is keeping a "close eye" on exchange rate developments, noting a stronger euro could push inflation lower. The euro traded around $1.1822 after the decision. France's Villeroy de Galhau has publicly flagged the currency's strength as a risk to the inflation target. The Bank of England held at 3.75% with a narrow 5–4 split — much closer than the 7–2 economists expected. Governor Bailey was the swing voter. Sterling dropped 0.6% and rate-cut expectations repriced sharply, with March now a live meeting. The BoE also slashed its inflation forecast, projecting CPI back to the 2% target from April. Among major central banks, the BoE looks closest to resuming its easing cycle — relevant for metals through GBP and broader European growth sentiment. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh on January 30 to succeed Powell, whose term expires in May. Warsh is widely expected to be confirmed, but Senator Tillis has vowed to block all Fed nominees until a DOJ investigation into Powell is resolved, and Treasury Secretary Bessent has publicly discussed whether Trump could sue over interest rates. Perceived institutional risk is moving FX and rates — translating into tougher conditions for metals bulls.
Precious metals
The most notable development is stress in parts of China's gold trading ecosystem: liquidity strain at an online trading platform highlights that investor positioning and financing channels matter as much as safe-haven narratives. Even with resilient physical demand, leverage events can amplify downside moves and raise intraday volatility in gold/silver.
Rare earths & critical minerals
No single new headline rewrites fundamentals. The market is digesting earlier strategic-policy shifts, and pricing stays sensitive to concrete implementation steps (tariff mechanics, stockpile purchases, offtake agreements). Without new policy specifics, rare earths trade more on China supply discipline and downstream magnet demand than on geopolitics.
Deel
