Daily metals

LME base metals are trading softer this Friday morning, with all six contracts below Thursday's official close. Tin is the biggest decliner, trading at $53,500 (−1.7% vs Thursday's close of $54,429), giving back some of its extraordinary weekly surge. Lead is also notably weaker at $1,914 (−1.3%). Copper eased to $13,196.50 (−0.3%), while zinc slipped to $3,342 (−0.6%). Aluminium bucked the trend slightly, trading at $3,156 (+0.4% vs close), while nickel was essentially flat at $17,475 (−0.1%). The pullback comes amid a risk-off tone driven by AI valuation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty.

The fallout from the U.S. Supreme Court's February 20 ruling striking down Trump's IEEPA tariffs continues to reshape the trade landscape. The administration has pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing a temporary 10% global tariff effective this week, with reports suggesting a potential increase to 15%. The European Parliament has paused ratification of the EU-U.S. trade deal pending clarity. Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva made some progress but ended without a breakthrough, keeping energy markets on edge. Pakistan launched overnight strikes against Taliban targets in Afghanistan, adding to the geopolitical risk premium. Markets expect three Fed rate cuts this year, but the next fully priced cut has been pushed back to September. Key data today includes German and French CPI, German unemployment, and U.S. PPI.

Copper is set for a weekly gain of roughly 2.8% on the LME, supported by post-Lunar New Year demand optimism from China, where the Yangshan premium jumped above $50/t from $33 before the holiday. However, rising LME warehouse stocks — up nearly 80% since mid-January to 253,600 tonnes — and technical resistance at $13,500 are capping upside. Tin has been the standout performer this week, surging around 19% on the LME, fuelled by Indonesia's announced plans to ban raw tin exports as part of its downstreaming agenda. Supply concerns are compounded by Myanmar's Man Maw mine remaining largely offline. Aluminium saw Emirates Global Aluminium close a $5 billion multi-tranche debt financing to support strategic initiatives. Canada is negotiating with the U.S. to remove Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium, which remain in force despite the Supreme Court ruling.

Gold is holding near $5,185/oz, set for its seventh consecutive monthly gain with a February rise exceeding 6%, underpinned by tariff uncertainty and Middle East tensions. Platinum surged over 5% to $2,389/oz, while palladium jumped 3% to $1,838/oz, both benefiting from the EU's reversal of its 2035 combustion-engine ban, which supports catalytic converter demand. South Africa's Northam Platinum reported a 25-fold surge in half-year profit, declaring a record interim dividend. Silver is tracking a 6.1% monthly gain. In Asia, Chinese gold premiums rose to $12–13/oz post-Lunar New Year, signalling renewed physical demand.

Spanish steelmaker Acerinox posted a Q4 net loss of €47 million, down from a €63 million profit a year ago, citing low seasonal demand for stainless steel, tariff tensions and price pressures. Turkish steelmakers showed mixed results: Borusan Boru swung to a full-year profit of TRY 1.27 billion, while Kocaer Çelik's profit surged to TRY 473.5 million. Iron ore futures dipped on expectations of Chinese steel production cuts from March 4, though post-holiday restocking is providing a floor. Shanghai steel benchmarks drifted lower across the board.

Japan's rare earth imports from China fell 5.7% year-on-year in January, amid an escalating diplomatic dispute. China has banned dual-use exports to 20 Japanese entities, effectively cutting them off from seven rare earths including dysprosium, yttrium and samarium. In the U.S., MP Materials swung to a Q4 profit aided by a government price support agreement and announced plans for a second magnet facility to manufacture 10,000 metric tons of magnets annually for the Department of Defense. Rare earth prices have roughly doubled over the past seven months.

The euro held just below $1.18, down marginally on the session, as markets awaited inflation data from Germany and France due today. The single currency is up roughly 14% year-on-year but has weakened about 1.3% over the past month. ECB President Lagarde told the European Parliament that inflation is expected to converge to the 2% target, while money markets price only a 30% chance of an ECB rate cut by December. The dollar index was little changed for the week but on track for a 0.5% monthly gain. The yen strengthened to 155.86/$ on safe-haven flows, while China's yuan hit its strongest level in nearly three years.

German unemployment (09:55 CET) and preliminary February CPI (14:00 CET) are the key European releases, alongside French CPI and Q4 GDP. U.S. PPI for January and Chicago PMI for February follow this afternoon. Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks. Swiss Q4 GDP and the KOF indicator are due at 09:00 CET.