Daily metals

LME three-month copper is trading at $12,809 as of Monday morning 07 o'clock, a 0.2% premium to Friday's official close of $12,781. Aluminium is the standout, up 1.0% at $3,476 versus Friday's $3,440 close, buoyed by escalating Middle East supply disruptions. Nickel has added 0.5% to $17,360, while tin is firmer at $47,270, up 0.4%. Lead and zinc are the laggards, both slipping — lead off 0.6% to $1,896 and zinc down 0.5% to $3,279. The complex is caught between supply-side anxiety from the Strait of Hormuz closure and demand-side headwinds from a surging dollar and fading rate-cut expectations.

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran enters its third week with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, the biggest disruption to global oil supply on record. Brent crude is trading above $104 per barrel. Trump is pushing for a multinational naval coalition to escort ships through the strait, naming China, France, Japan, South Korea and the UK as potential participants, though no country has publicly committed. EU foreign ministers meet today to discuss bolstering a naval mission in the Middle East. Central banks across the U.S., Europe, UK, Japan, Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Sweden hold their first full meetings since the war began. The Fed is certain to hold on Wednesday, with rate-cut expectations collapsing — markets now price just one cut by year-end. The Bank of England meets Thursday and is expected to hold rates steady. U.S. and Chinese officials held over six hours of "candid and constructive" talks in Paris on Sunday, with discussions continuing today on rare earths, tariffs and agricultural purchases ahead of a Trump-Xi summit in Beijing later this month.

Alba, the world's largest single-site aluminium smelter, has shut 19% of its 1.62 million ton/year capacity to preserve raw material stocks amid the Hormuz blockade. India's Hindalco declared force majeure on extruded aluminium customers due to gas shortages. South32 placed its Mozal smelter in Mozambique on care and maintenance after failing to secure affordable power — removing another chunk of global supply. Middle East smelters account for roughly 9% of world aluminium output. On the demand side, Citi notes copper faces near-term downward pressure from the strong dollar, delayed Fed cuts and weak post-Lunar New Year restocking in China. Shanghai tin's most active contract fell more than 4% on Monday, dragging LME tin lower. China's January-February aluminium output rose 3% year-on-year to 7.53 million tons on improved smelter margins.

Gold is treading water around $5,020/oz, struggling to gain traction despite the geopolitical backdrop. Higher oil prices are feeding inflation fears, but the resulting expectation that rates will stay elevated is capping gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. The Fed's Wednesday decision and dot plot will be critical — any removal of remaining 2026 easing projections could weigh further. Silver slipped to around $80.60, platinum firmed to $2,050 and palladium edged up to $1,567. Steel China's crude steel output fell 3.6% year-on-year to 160.34 million tons in January-February, as only 39% of steelmakers operated profitably — a sharp deterioration from 21.6% a year earlier. Steel exports slipped 8.1% as Beijing's export licence requirements slowed shipments. In the UK, the National Audit Office warned that government support for British Steel has cost £377 million over nine months with no repayment schedule, and ongoing operations are running at £1.3 million per day with the bill set to reach £615 million by June.

U.S. and Chinese officials in Paris discussed solutions to difficulties American aerospace and semiconductor firms face obtaining rare earths, including yttrium used in jet engine coatings. The October 2025 Busan trade truce paused China's export controls, but key sectors remain undersupplied. Separately, Australia's Lynas signed a binding letter of intent with the Pentagon worth approximately $96 million for light and heavy rare earth oxide supply, with a floor price of $110/kg for NdPr oxide. American Rare Earths was selected to provide feedstock for a Department of Energy supply chain research facility.

The euro is pinned near seven-month lows around $1.1440, threatening a breach of major chart support at $1.1392 that could open a retreat toward $1.1065. The dollar is holding near 10-month highs, supported by its safe-haven status and America's position as a net energy exporter. Dollar-yen sits at 159.58, just below the 160 level that could trigger Japanese intervention warnings.

U.S.-China trade talks resume in Paris at the technical level. EU foreign ministers discuss Strait of Hormuz naval options. U.S. industrial production data for February is due at 14:15 GMT. The Fed's two-day meeting starts tomorrow (decision Wednesday). Nvidia's GTC conference kicks off in Silicon Valley, with potential implications for risk sentiment and AI-linked metals demand.