Daily metals

Copper is trading at $13,275 as of Wednesday morning, a 0.2% premium to Tuesday's official close of $13,253, consolidating near six-week highs. Nickel is the standout mover, up 0.8% to $18,125 from Tuesday's $17,981 close, extending its rally on Indonesian supply cuts. Lead has added 0.9% to $1,911, aluminium is 0.6% firmer at $3,640, and zinc has edged up 0.3% to $3,332. Tin is essentially flat, slipping fractionally to $50,080 from $50,095. The complex remains broadly supported by hopes that U.S.-Iran peace talks could resume imminently, which pulled oil below $100/barrel and weakened the dollar overnight.

Wall Street surged on Tuesday as President Trump signalled U.S.-Iran talks could resume in Pakistan within days, pushing the S&P 500 up 1.2% to flirt with its record closing high. Brent crude tumbled 4.6% to settle at $94.79, its sharpest daily drop since the war began, though prices remain roughly 40% above pre-conflict levels. The dollar index slid for a seventh consecutive session to 98.10, nearing pre-war levels, after U.S. producer prices rose just 0.5% in March — well below the 1.1% consensus. The IMF cut its global growth outlook, warning the economy could tip into recession if the conflict worsens. Two-year Treasury yields remain about 35 basis points above late-February levels as inflation fears keep rate-cut expectations subdued — traders now price only a 30% chance of a cut this year. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee cautioned that rate cuts may need to wait until 2027.

Copper touched $13,392.50 in early Asian trade, its highest since March 2, buoyed by peace-talk optimism and a softer dollar. Supply-side pressures persist: Chile's output is underperforming in 2026, the Iran war has lifted Codelco's costs by 10 cents per pound, and Chinese smelters face renewed pressure to cut production after Beijing's pending ban on sulphuric acid exports removes a key revenue offset against record-negative treatment charges of minus $77/ton. China Minmetals projects Chinese copper consumption will grow 3.7% annually through 2035. Nickel rallied to its highest since late January after Indonesian processors trimmed output by at least 10% amid sulphur shortages caused by Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Aluminium bucked the trend, dipping on easing supply concerns. Alcoa announced it will redeem $219 million of 2028 notes using cash on hand.

Gold touched a one-month high of $4,842 before easing to $4,828 as the dollar found a floor and risk appetite improved. Spot silver surged 5.2% on Tuesday to $79.48, its strongest session in weeks. Commerzbank analysts noted that gold is unlikely to fall much further unless markets begin pricing a Fed rate hike — which remains off the table for now. Platinum gained to $2,127 and palladium held near $1,586. SPDR Gold Trust holdings slipped 0.5% to 954.48 tonnes, suggesting some profit-taking despite the constructive macro backdrop.

The World Steel Association cut its 2026 global demand growth forecast to just 0.3% — down from 1.3% projected in October — citing the Iran war's impact on Middle Eastern consumption. EU institutions reached a landmark deal to nearly halve tariff-free steel imports to 18.3 million metric tons, with out-of-quota duties doubled. Eurofer said the measures could restore 15 million tons of EU production and preserve 30,000 jobs, with shares in ArcelorMittal, Thyssenkrupp and Salzgitter rallying on the news. China's March steel exports fell 12.6% year-on-year as Strait of Hormuz disruptions choked Gulf-bound shipments. Separately, Stegra secured €1.4 billion in new financing led by Sweden's Wallenberg family to complete Europe's first hydrogen-based steel plant.

LKAB's Per Geijer rare earths project in northern Sweden faces a potential legal challenge after the Stockholm Environment Institute warned the mine could violate indigenous Sami rights under UN conventions. The project, one of Europe's largest rare earth finds with 2.2 million tonnes of rare earth oxides, is designated a strategic EU project. In Brazil, the mining regulator expects a national critical minerals policy within two to three months, while pushing back against proposals for a state-owned rare earths company. Saga Metals signed a deal to acquire the Wolverine heavy rare earth project in Labrador.

The dollar index fell for a seventh straight session to 98.10, its weakest since the first trading day after the Iran war began, before stabilising in Asian trade. The euro held near $1.179, having touched a six-week high of $1.1811 overnight — virtually erasing all war-related losses. Sterling climbed above $1.357, surpassing pre-conflict levels. The inflationary shock from elevated oil prices has left investors pricing potential rate hikes in the eurozone and UK but not in the U.S., which is supporting European currencies. The softer dollar is making dollar-denominated metals cheaper for European buyers, a tailwind for physical demand.

ASML reports earnings this morning — a bellwether for tech sentiment that can ripple into risk assets. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley also report. France's March CPI is due at 07:45 CET, followed by eurozone February industrial production at 11:00 CET. Fed Governor Barr and Vice Chair Bowman speak later. Any headlines on U.S.-Iran talks resuming in Islamabad could move oil and metals sharply.