Daily metals

Copper is trading at $13,201 cash / $13,257 three-month as of Wednesday morning, with the lowest available price at $13,201 — a 0.3% premium to Tuesday's lowest close of $13,164. Tin is the standout mover again, up 1.5% to $50,480 cash, extending its run on persistent supply tightness. Nickel has added 0.6% to $18,132, while aluminium (-0.1%), lead (-0.3%) and zinc (flat) are essentially unchanged. The complex is treading water as traders digest President Trump's unilateral extension of the Iran ceasefire and await clarity on whether Tehran and Tel Aviv will agree.

Trump announced an indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire late Tuesday, hours before it was set to expire, though it remains unclear whether Iran or Israel have agreed. Iran had earlier rejected a second round of talks, demanding the U.S. abandon its "policy of pressure and threats." The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping Brent crude near $98 and sustaining the inflationary impulse that is complicating central bank policy across Europe. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh called for "regime change" at the central bank during his Senate confirmation hearing, pledging independence from the White House while signalling a hawkish tilt on inflation. U.S. retail sales beat expectations in March, though a 15.5% surge in gasoline receipts accounted for much of the upside. Wall Street fell for a second session, with the S&P 500 down 0.63% and the Dow off 0.59%.

Copper lacked conviction on Tuesday, trading in a tight $13,200–$13,330 range before closing down 0.3% at $13,224 as Trump's refusal to extend the ceasefire initially rattled sentiment. Sucden Financial noted the complex is "waiting for clearer signals from macro and geopolitical developments." Goldman Sachs maintained its 2026 copper price forecast at $12,650/t average and a 490,000-ton surplus, but flagged risks from sulphuric acid shortages — China's May 1 export ban combined with Hormuz disruptions could put 125,000 tons of DRC output and 200,000 tons of Chilean production at risk. Mercuria's head of metals research described the aluminium market as a "black swan" event, estimating a minimum 2-million-ton deficit through year-end against just 1.5 million tons of visible inventory, with Europe and the U.S. particularly exposed. European aluminium premiums hit a near four-year high of $599/t, though Mercuria itself reportedly sold metal $10–$15 below the Fastmarkets benchmark after failing to attract bids at the assessed level. Shanghai's nickel futures opened to overseas traders for the first time on Tuesday evening.

Gold was hammered on Tuesday, falling 2.95% to $4,677.54 as a firmer dollar and rising Treasury yields crushed the non-yielding metal. Silver dropped over 5% to $75.62, platinum shed 3% to $2,015, and palladium dipped 0.6%. Prices have recovered modestly in Asian hours on Wednesday, with spot gold up around 0.9% to $4,755 as the ceasefire extension eased fears of an imminent resumption of hostilities. Standard Chartered noted that price action "remains at the mercy of Middle East ceasefire headlines." Swiss gold exports rose 30% month-on-month in March, with shipments to the UK jumping to 57.6 tons — the highest since December — as gold continued flowing back from the U.S.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Mexico's steel industry that tariffs will never return to zero, with commodity steel and aluminium facing a 50% U.S. duty and derivative goods a 25% levy. Formal USMCA bilateral negotiations are set to begin the week of May 25 in Mexico City. Separately, Salzgitter reported preliminary Q1 EBITDA of €280 million, beating expectations, and revised its 2026 outlook upward, citing anticipated positive stimulus from EU trade defence measures over the course of the year.

U.S. Trade Representative Greer urged American allies to pay a "national security premium" for critical minerals sourced outside China, as part of a proposed group of trading partners including Europe. The push underscores Washington's strategy to decouple critical mineral supply chains from Beijing, with direct implications for European procurement costs. Shenghe Resources, a major Chinese rare earth processor, announced a share buyback of 200–400 million yuan.

The dollar firmed on Tuesday, with the index rising 0.48% to 98.54 as safe-haven demand and strong retail sales data supported the greenback. The euro fell 0.54% to $1.1723, retreating from recent highs. Sterling dipped to $1.352 ahead of today's UK March CPI release, which is expected to show inflation accelerating to around 3.3% from 3.0% — the first clean reading capturing the Iran war's energy price shock. The yen weakened to 159.6 per dollar. Markets are pricing in fewer ECB rate cuts this year as oil prices remain elevated despite easing from March peaks.

UK March CPI data lands at 07:00 BST — the first reading to capture the Iran war's impact on energy prices, with consensus at 3.3%. The euro zone flash consumer confidence indicator for April is due at 16:00 CEST. ECB President Lagarde and board members Lane, Cipollone, Donnery and Elderson are all scheduled to speak. Tesla reports Q1 earnings after the U.S. close.