Daily metals

Copper is trading at $13,207 as of Friday 07:00, down 1.3% from Thursday's official close of $13,374 — the sharpest decline in the complex. Tin has shed $571 to $49,670, a 1.1% drop, while nickel has fallen 1.2% to $18,033. Aluminium is off 0.7% at $3,587, zinc has slipped 0.8% to $3,442, and lead is the most resilient, easing just 0.7% to $1,930. The broad-based pullback reflects a souring risk mood as the U.S.-Iran standoff intensifies and the dollar firms, with Brent crude pushing past $105/bbl overnight.

The fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire is fraying. Iran released footage of commandos storming a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, while President Trump ordered the Navy to "shoot and kill" Iranian boats laying mines. Brent settled at $105.07/bbl, up 3.1% on the day, stoking inflation fears across Europe. Wall Street retreated, with the Nasdaq posting its worst session in a month. U.S. jobless claims ticked up to 214,000, slightly above forecasts, while S&P Global's flash PMI showed output prices at their highest since July 2022. The EU formally adopted its 20th sanctions package against Russia, which includes import bans on Russian nickel bars, unrefined and processed copper, and aluminium scrap — a development with direct implications for European scrap flows. The Germany Ifo business sentiment index for April is due at 10:00 CET this morning.

Copper faces a double headwind this morning. The ICSG revised its 2026 global refined copper balance to a surplus of 96,000 tonnes, reversing a previously forecast deficit of 150,000 tonnes, citing slower demand growth and higher secondary output. The surplus is projected to widen to 377,000 tonnes in 2027. Separately, Freeport-McMoRan cut its 2026 Grasberg output forecast to 800 million lbs of copper from 1.1 billion lbs, as wetter-than-expected ore delays the restart — shares fell over 8%. Nickel bucked the trend on Thursday, gaining 1.2% to $18,690 after Eramet confirmed plans to halt production at Weda Bay next month as mining quotas run out. The EU's new ban on Russian nickel bars and copper imports adds a further supply-side wrinkle for European buyers. Century Aluminum restarted a second potline at its Grundartangi smelter in Iceland ahead of schedule, with near-full production expected by end-July.

Gold slipped to a one-week low at $4,661 in Asian trade, down 3.5% for the week, as surging oil prices fuel expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates. A Reuters poll showed the Fed is likely to wait at least six months before cutting. The CME cut COMEX gold margins to 6% from 7% and silver margins to 11% from 14%, effective after Friday's close. Newmont beat Q1 estimates with adjusted EPS of $2.90 vs $2.18 expected, driven by a $4,900/oz average realised gold price, but warned of rising energy costs — every $10/bbl move in oil impacts AISC by ~$12/oz. Silver fell 2.7% to $75.55, platinum lost 3.2%, and palladium dropped 5%.

Holcim reported Q1 results ahead of expectations, with organic sales up 3.9% and recurring EBIT up 8.3%, confirming full-year guidance despite the war-related slowdown in European construction. Chinese crude steel output fell 6.3% year-on-year to 87 million tonnes in March. Tokyo Steel announced a treasury share buyback of up to 1.5 million shares.

The U.S. and EU will sign a memorandum of understanding today for a strategic partnership on critical minerals, with Secretary of State Rubio and EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic meeting in Washington. The deal aims to coordinate production and reduce dependence on Chinese-dominated supply chains, potentially including minimum price guarantees for non-Chinese suppliers. American Rare Earths said its Nasdaq listing is expected to be completed by end-2026.

The euro slipped to $1.1684, down 0.16% on Thursday and heading for a weekly loss of nearly 0.7% as the dollar firms on safe-haven demand. Sterling held at $1.3469. The yen is the key focus, hovering at 159.78 per dollar — a whisker from the 160 level widely seen as an intervention trigger. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama renewed warnings of "decisive action" in coordination with Washington. Bitcoin fell below $78,000. Next week brings policy decisions from the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England, with markets watching closely for signals on how the war-driven inflation shock is shaping rate paths.

Germany's Ifo business sentiment index (10:00 CET) will gauge how deeply the Middle East energy shock is hitting Europe's largest economy — March's reading plunged to 86.4, the weakest since February 2025. The U.S.-EU critical minerals MOU signing ceremony takes place in Washington. U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final April) is due at 16:00 CET. UK retail sales data for March lands at 08:00 CET.