Daily metals

Copper is trading at $13,055 as of Wednesday morning, a 0.8% premium to Tuesday's official close of $12,951, recovering from the two-week low hit during yesterday's session. Tin is the standout mover at $49,483, up 1.4% from Tuesday's close of $48,808, continuing to benefit from tight supply dynamics. Aluminium is marginally firmer at $3,617 cash, a 0.3% gain over Tuesday's $3,539 three-month close. Nickel has edged up 0.1% to $19,272, lead is 0.2% higher at $1,964, and zinc has added 0.2% to $3,387. The complex is finding a floor after Tuesday's broad selloff, though gains remain tentative ahead of the Fed decision later today.

Today's Federal Reserve decision dominates the agenda — and it will be Jerome Powell's last meeting as chair, with Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation vote expected imminently. A hold is fully priced in, with no policy changes anticipated until well into 2027. The Middle East conflict remains the overriding macro risk: Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the Wall Street Journal reported the White House is preparing for an extended blockade. Oil surged again on Tuesday, with WTI back above $100 and Brent above $110, fuelling inflation fears that are constraining central banks globally. The UAE's shock exit from OPEC adds a further layer of uncertainty to the energy outlook. Britain's 10-year gilt yield closed above 5% for the first time since 2008. The ECB, BoE and Bank of Canada also meet this week.

Copper fell 1.3% on Tuesday to a two-week low of $13,042 on the LME, pressured by a stronger dollar and inflation anxiety linked to the Middle East standoff. The ICSG reported a 276,000-tonne global refined copper surplus in February, up sharply from 34,000 tonnes in January, with the year-to-date surplus reaching 310,000 tonnes — a bearish signal for physical markets. On the supply side, an Argentine court cleared BHP and Lundin Mining's Vicuña copper project to continue operating after a rival province ordered a suspension, while Zijin Mining announced a $1.5 billion investment to expand its La Arena copper mine in Peru. Nickel hit a near two-year high at $19,565 on Tuesday after Huayou Cobalt said it would slash output at its Indonesian HPAL plant by roughly half from May 1 due to surging sulphur costs. Morgan Stanley noted Indonesian HPAL producers represent 14% of global nickel supply, keeping prices skewed to the upside. Aluminium found support from disrupted Middle Eastern exports — normally 9% of global supply — with the LME cash contract trading at a $56/t premium over three-month, compared with a pre-war discount of $12.

Gold slid 1.7% on Tuesday to a near four-week low of $4,600 as surging oil prices stoked inflation fears ahead of the Fed meeting. The paradox persists: while gold is traditionally an inflation hedge, the prospect of higher-for-longer rates weighs on the non-yielding metal. Gold was steady in early Wednesday trade around $4,603, with Standard Chartered noting that structural drivers — geopolitical tensions, tariffs, trade uncertainty — remain intact for a retest of record highs in coming months. Silver fell 2.7% to $73.43, platinum lost 1.5% to $1,953, and palladium dropped 0.8% to $1,465.

China's apparent crude steel consumption fell 4.4% year-on-year in Q1 2026 to 220 million tonnes, underscoring tepid domestic demand. BlueScope's CEO warned that Chinese steel dumping is placing thousands of Australian jobs at risk and called for structural gas market reform. In Turkey, Isdemir posted Q1 revenue of 31.7 billion lira versus 26.9 billion year ago, while Erdemir saw Q1 net profit shrink to 383.9 million lira from 426.4 million year ago despite revenue rising to 59.7 billion lira. Grupo Mexico reported a 57% profit jump in Q1, though copper production dipped 2.8% on weaker Peruvian output; its Tia Maria project in Peru is now 32.5% complete with first production targeted for Q3 2027.

Rare Earths Americas kicked off its U.S. IPO roadshow targeting a valuation of up to $368 million, planning to sell 2.78 million shares at $17–$19 each. In China, rare earth and battery stocks led onshore gains on Wednesday, with Northern Rare Earth hitting the 10% daily limit after Q1 net profit more than doubled. The sector continues to benefit from Western governments' push to build alternative supply chains.

The euro slipped to around $1.17 on Tuesday, down 0.2% on the session, as the dollar edged higher on Middle East-driven inflation concerns. The DXY rose to 98.66, approaching a three-week high. The ECB is expected to hold rates at Thursday's meeting, but markets are pricing potential hikes in 2026 as eurozone inflation pressures build, driven by energy costs. The yen weakened after the Bank of Japan held rates unchanged, though a hawkish split on the board points to a potential June hike. For European scrap traders, the firmer dollar provides a modest tailwind for dollar-denominated metal revenues.

The Fed decision lands at 19:00 CET — Powell's final press conference as chair will be scrutinised for any signals on the inflation-growth trade-off under the Iran war. Norsk Hydro's Q1 results are out this morning, with a beat already flagged by early reports. European earnings from Deutsche Bank, Mercedes-Benz, AstraZeneca, TotalEnergies and UBS are also due. Germany's preliminary April CPI at 14:00 CET and eurozone consumer confidence data will set the tone ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting. U.S. durable goods orders for March are due at 14:30 CET, followed by mega-cap tech earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta after the U.S. close.