Daily metals

Copper is trading at $14,094 cash as of Wednesday morning, a 1.0% premium to Tuesday's official close of $13,959, extending its rally to an eighth consecutive session and pushing within striking distance of the January intraday record of $14,527.50. Tin is the standout mover, with cash up 1.3% at $55,463 versus Tuesday's low of $54,747. Nickel has rebounded 0.9% to $18,932 after shedding nearly 2% on Tuesday. Aluminium is 0.5% firmer at $3,581, zinc has added 0.5% to $3,540, and lead is the quietest at $2,004, up just 0.3%. The complex is shrugging off macro headwinds from hotter U.S. inflation and elevated oil prices, driven instead by persistent supply-side concerns.

U.S. April CPI came in at 3.8% year-on-year, the highest since May 2023 and above the 3.7% consensus, with core inflation also beating expectations. Markets have now priced out any Fed rate cut this year, with a 30%-plus probability of a hike by December. The U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as Fed governor, clearing the path for him to succeed Powell as chair. Brent crude held above $107 after three days of gains as Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "on life support" and Tehran rejected U.S. terms. Trump arrived in Beijing on Wednesday for talks with Xi Jinping, with Iran, rare earths and trade all on the agenda. UK gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 amid political turmoil around PM Starmer, dragging sterling down 0.5%.

Copper's eighth straight advance is being powered by systematic fund buying and supply anxiety rather than macro optimism. Codelco's March output fell 10% year-on-year to 110,900 tonnes, while Escondida dropped 15.8% and Collahuasi shed 10.8%. Peru's energy vulnerabilities added another layer of concern after Petroperu sought $2 billion in state-backed loans. Marex noted computer-driven models have been bidding copper, aluminium and zinc since the London open. In aluminium, the Iran war's impact on Gulf supply is acute — Alba reported a 17% drop in Q1 sales volumes and 14% lower production after shutting 19% of capacity. European Aluminium expects EU measures to retain more scrap domestically within weeks. Zinc gained support after Kazzinc confirmed reduced capacity at its Kazakhstan plants following last week's explosion.

Gold slipped to $4,696 on Tuesday as surging oil prices and the hot CPI print lifted Treasury yields and the dollar, undermining the non-yielding metal. UBS maintained its bullish outlook, arguing underlying drivers remain intact. India raised gold and silver import tariffs to 15% from 6% — part of Modi's austerity push to protect forex reserves — sending Indian gold futures up over 7% but risking dampened demand in the world's second-largest consumer. Silver touched a two-month high before retreating, supported by expectations of a widening physical deficit and rising EV-driven demand for solar applications.

Outokumpu reported Q1 adjusted EBITDA of €65 million, missing the €70 million consensus, with its European division posting a €13 million loss. However, CFO Marc-Simon Schaar noted the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has nearly halved cold-rolled stainless imports into the bloc since January, creating a more favourable competitive backdrop. ArcelorMittal filed for a $1 billion notes offering due 2036. The Baltic dry freight index rose 2.1% to 3,063, with capesize rates climbing to $42,588 per day.

Trump and Xi are expected to discuss extending the October rare earth truce during their Beijing summit, but Chinese customs data shows heavy rare earth exports of yttrium, dysprosium and terbium remain down roughly 50% since controls were imposed in April 2025. Prices outside China have soared four- to five-fold for dysprosium and terbium and approximately 140-fold for yttrium. Japan has received just 4% of its pre-controls dysprosium imports; Germany has received none. The White House recently intervened to secure export licences for a large U.S. firm losing hundreds of millions monthly, underscoring the persistent bite of Beijing's controls despite the headline truce.

The dollar index rose 0.35% to 98.31 on Tuesday, its second consecutive advance, buoyed by the hotter CPI print and fading Iran peace hopes. The euro slipped 0.38% to $1.1737, pressured by the broader dollar bid ahead of today's eurozone Q1 GDP flash estimate. Sterling was the worst-performing major, falling 0.54% to $1.3533 as UK political uncertainty sent 30-year gilt yields to 1998 highs. Dollar-yen firmed to 157.64 despite rate-check speculation from Tokyo. The Korean won weakened 1.1% after the KOSPI's sharp reversal from record highs.

Eurozone Q1 GDP flash and March industrial production data land this morning, offering a read on the bloc's growth momentum. U.S. April PPI is due at 1230 GMT and will be scrutinised for further inflation signals after yesterday's CPI surprise. ECB President Lagarde, board member Lane and BoE's Catherine Mann are all scheduled to speak. The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing begins in earnest, with rare earths, Iran and trade on the table.