Daily metals

This Morning Copper is trading at $13,586 cash / $13,644 three-month as of Thursday 06:30, with the three-month price essentially flat at -0.1% versus Wednesday's official close of $13,656. Tin is the standout mover, up 0.5% to $54,220 on the three-month, extending its recent rally on Indonesian supply concerns. Zinc has firmed 0.5% to $3,571 and lead is 0.6% higher at $1,992. Nickel is the weakest performer, slipping 0.4% to $18,855 on the three-month. Aluminium is barely changed at $3,626, up 0.1%. Macro & Geopolitics Wall Street rallied on Wednesday — the S&P 500 gained 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.5% — after Trump said U.S.-Iran negotiations were in their "final stages," sending Brent crude down over 5% to settle at $105.02. Three supertankers carrying 6 million barrels of oil crossed the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran continues to consolidate control of the waterway. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 9.4 bps to 4.576% from multi-year highs, but Fed minutes from the April meeting revealed a growing number of policymakers open to rate hikes if inflation persists above 2%. In a major development for European trade, the EU struck a provisional deal on legislation to remove import duties on U.S. goods, likely meeting Trump's July 4 deadline and averting threatened tariff escalation on EU products including cars. ECB sources indicate a June rate hike is "nearly sealed," with eurozone inflation concerns mounting. Base Metals Copper rebounded 1.7% on Wednesday before easing overnight, supported by Chile's Cochilco cutting its 2026 production forecast to a 2.0% decline at 5.3 million tons, citing lower ore grades and weak year-to-date performance. Freeport Indonesia's Grasberg mine — the world's second-largest copper operation — is running at just 50% capacity, with full ramp-up now pushed to end-2027 due to wet ore complications. Nickel and tin remain underpinned by Indonesia's sweeping plan to centralise commodity exports under state control via sovereign wealth fund Danantara, with President Prabowo warning trading partners to accept Jakarta's pricing or forgo supply. Zinc continues to outperform, up 13% year-to-date, as Western smelter bottlenecks persist; the ILZSG now forecasts a 19,000-ton global deficit this year, a dramatic reversal from the 271,000-ton surplus predicted last October. Gulf aluminium output collapsed 35% year-on-year in April to its lowest in over a decade as the Iran war disrupts Strait of Hormuz supply routes, while Chinese producers exploit a tax arbitrage by surging exports of aluminium stranded wire — up 166% year-on-year. Precious Metals Gold held steady around $4,544 after bouncing 1% on Wednesday from a seven-week low, caught between easing oil-driven inflation fears and hawkish Fed signals. Markets are pricing a roughly 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by December. Silver rose 3% to $76, platinum gained to $1,947, and palladium edged up to $1,369. SPDR Gold Trust holdings slipped 0.2% to 1,042 tons. Citi maintains a cautious near-term stance with a $4,300 target, though longer-term support from central bank reserve diversification and fiscal debt concerns remains intact. Steel Thyssenkrupp is considering an extraordinary general meeting this summer to let shareholders vote on spinning off its materials trading division MX, which accounts for over a third of group sales and saw adjusted operating profit nearly triple in Q2. The move comes as consolidation accelerates in the sector following Worthington Steel's acquisition of Kloeckner & Co and the Ryerson-Olympic Steel merger. Separately, Codelco fired an executive and disciplined others after an audit found improper reporting of 2025 production figures at its Chuquicamata and Ministro Hales operations. Rare Earth Metals Europe is taking concrete steps to reduce its dependence on Chinese critical minerals. The EU has shortlisted tungsten, rare earths and gallium for its first joint stockpile, with Rotterdam, Porto Marghera and Trieste under consideration as storage hubs. EIT RawMaterials is collaborating with Metalshub to create a European pricing index for critical minerals, arguing that Chinese benchmarks are "neither representative nor, in strict microeconomic terms, a price." In Australia, Arafura Rare Earths approved its $1.6 billion Nolans project, backed by export credit agencies from the U.S., Germany, Canada and South Korea, with 4,440 tons of annual NdPr oxide capacity targeting non-Chinese markets from mid-2029. Forex The euro is trading around $1.163, near one-month lows, as the single currency remains under pressure from the stagflationary impact of the Iran war on the eurozone economy. The dollar index fell 0.22% on Wednesday to 99.09 as Iran peace hopes weighed on the greenback, with the yen steady at 158.81. Markets are pricing high probability of an ECB rate hike next month, though the June decision hinges on today's flash PMI data. The Australian dollar slumped 0.7% to $0.7105 after employment unexpectedly fell in April. Watch Today Flash PMI readings for France (07:15 GMT), Germany (07:30), the eurozone (08:00) and the UK (08:30) will be closely watched for signs of whether the April contraction in eurozone activity deepened in May — critical for the ECB's June rate decision. In the U.S., housing starts, weekly jobless claims, the Philly Fed index and flash PMIs are all due. The EU consumer confidence flash for May is released at 14:00 GMT. BoE Governor Bailey speaks.