Daily metals

Copper is trading at $13,911 as of Tuesday 07:00, a 0.7% premium to Monday's official three-month close of $13,832, extending its push toward a two-week high. Aluminium is the joint standout, up 1.5% at $3,774 from Monday's $3,716 close, building on yesterday's surge to four-year highs. Tin is the other big mover, leaping 1.5% to $57,400 from $56,649. Lead has added 0.8% to $2,017, zinc is 0.6% firmer at $3,599, and nickel is the quietest of the complex at $19,265, barely changed. The broad-based strength reflects a market caught between escalating Middle East supply risks and persistent U.S. tariff-driven dislocations. Macro & Geopolitics Fresh U.S.-Iran strikes over the weekend rattled markets, with Tehran briefly halting indirect negotiations before Trump insisted talks were continuing "at a rapid pace." Brent crude settled up 4.2% at $94.98 on Monday, fanning inflation fears across Europe. The eurozone manufacturing PMI eased to 51.6 in May from 52.2 in April, with input costs and output charges hitting four-year and three-and-a-half-year highs respectively as Middle East supply disruptions bite. Eurozone inflation data for May — due at 15:00 CET today — will be closely watched, with national readings from France, Italy and Spain already showing acceleration. Markets now price over 90% probability of an ECB rate hike on June 11. On the U.S. side, ISM manufacturing surged to 54.0 in May, a four-year high, likely boosted by front-loading ahead of further price rises. U.S. nonfarm payrolls on Friday will be the week's key data point. Base Metals Aluminium remains the standout story. Monday's rally to $3,724 — the highest since March 2022 — was driven by intensifying Middle East supply risks, with the region accounting for 9% of global smelting capacity and the Strait of Hormuz closure continuing to restrict both exports and raw material imports. The cash-to-three-month backwardation surged past $100/t last week, a 19-year extreme. Guinea's imminent announcement of bauxite export controls — expected this month — adds a further structural supply threat. Copper is being pulled higher by tightening supply outside the U.S., where COMEX stocks have ballooned over 550% since the tariff investigation began. Trump signed a proclamation on Monday amending Section 232 tariffs on some steel, aluminium and copper derivative products, though the broader copper tariff question remains unresolved. Chile's copper output plunged 13.8% year-on-year in April, deepening a multi-month decline driven by falling ore grades at legacy mines. Precious Metals Gold fell nearly 2% on Monday to around $4,450 as surging oil prices and a firmer dollar fuelled inflation fears, reinforcing the higher-for-longer rate narrative. Traders now price a 54% chance of at least one Fed rate hike by year-end. The metal has now dropped for three consecutive months. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen noted that once the geopolitical situation stabilises, structural themes including central bank buying should reassert themselves. Silver slipped to $75.26, platinum held at $1,930 and palladium was steady near $1,366, with Morgan Stanley noting palladium is "moving towards balance as supply constraints are offset by weakening autos demand." Steel India warned it could revisit tariff concessions on Scotch whisky if Britain fails to address concerns over its steel safeguard measures, ahead of trade talks between UK Trade Secretary Peter Kyle and India's Commerce Minister on Tuesday. India, along with Brazil, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland and Australia, has raised concerns at the WTO over Britain's new steel import restrictions. Separately, Trump's Monday proclamation lowered tariffs on some steel derivative products to 15% from 25%, while adding steel racks to the 25% duty list. ArcelorMittal reported an incident at an electric arc furnace at its Lazaro Cardenas plant in Mexico following a power outage. Rare Earth Metals The EU launched its first investment roadshow in South Africa on Monday, with some 200 companies attending as the bloc seeks to mobilise €12 billion in pledged investments under the 2025 EU-South Africa Clean Trade and Investment Partnership. The push to diversify critical mineral supply chains away from China continues to accelerate, with EU Parliament foreign affairs committee chairman David McAllister noting the bloc has learned from its experience diversifying away from Russian energy. Viridis Mining signed a strategic offtake partnership LOI with Solvay for mixed rare earth carbonate supply from Brazil, targeting commercial production by 2028. Forex The euro opened Tuesday around $1.1637, largely flat after Monday's 0.25% decline against the dollar. The greenback firmed broadly on the back of surging oil prices and strong ISM data, with the dollar index holding at 99.2. Dollar-yen pushed to 159.69, hovering near the 160 level that previously triggered intervention. ECB rate hike expectations are intensifying — markets now see over 90% probability of a 25bp increase at the June 11 meeting, with at least two hikes priced for 2026. The euro has weakened 0.5% over the past month against the dollar as the inflation-rate divergence between the U.S. and Europe narrows. Watch Today Eurozone May flash inflation data at 15:00 CET will be the key release for European markets, with national readings already pointing to further acceleration. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks to the House of Lords, and BoE rate-setter Megan Greene speaks separately. U.S. JOLTS job openings for April are due, along with remarks from Fed officials Kashkari and Hammack. The Canada-USMCA minister meets USTR Greer in Washington.