Daily metals

Base metals are trading in a narrow range this Wednesday morning as the market holds its breath ahead of the Fed decision later today. Compared with Tuesday's official close, copper is trading at $13,682, down 0.1%, while aluminium at $3,354.50 is off 0.5%. Nickel is the session's notable underperformer, trading at $17,630, down 0.9% from its $17,783.37 close. Zinc bucks the trend, edging up 0.1% to $3,550.50. Lead is marginally softer at $1,956 (−0.2%), and tin has slipped 0.5% to $54,495. Macro & Geopolitics All eyes are on Washington today as Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting, with the rate decision due at 18:00 GMT. Markets widely expect rates to hold at 3.50–3.75%, but the tone of Warsh's press conference and the updated dot plot will be scrutinised for any hawkish lean. Rate-hike expectations for December have eased to 59% from around 70% last week, helped by the U.S.-Iran peace deal that has sent Brent crude below $80 for the first time since early March. The G7 summit in Evian wraps up today with discussions on critical minerals and reducing reliance on China. EU leaders will separately debate tougher trade defence measures against Chinese imports at a Brussels summit tomorrow. UK May CPI data is due at 06:00 GMT, with consensus expecting a rise to around 3%, and final eurozone HICP readings are also on the calendar. Base Metals Copper edged marginally higher in Asian trade, supported by the U.S.-Iran peace deal, but gains remain capped by expectations that the Fed will keep borrowing costs elevated. A notable development for copper supply chains: U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued a Withhold Release Order against Serbia Zijin Copper, barring its copper products from entering the U.S. over forced labour allegations. Aluminium hit a 2½-month low of $3,334 on Tuesday as traders unwound war-premium positions, though the LME cash-to-three-month spread flipped to a $21 discount — levels last seen before the Iran conflict began. Middle East smelter damage means production recovery will be slow even if peace holds. SHFE aluminium inventories have surged 270% year-to-date to their highest since March 2020, signalling weak Chinese demand. Sims, the global metal recycler, raised its FY26 EBIT guidance to A$420–435 million from A$350–400 million, citing strength in non-ferrous markets and improved North American trading conditions. Precious Metals Gold is steady near $4,331 after a five-session winning streak, trading close to a one-week high as easing rate-hike expectations support the metal. A record 45% of central bank reserve managers surveyed by the World Gold Council plan to increase gold holdings over the next 12 months. Silver is around $70, platinum near $1,792, and palladium at $1,341. The LBMA has invoked its Incident Review Process against Swiss refiner Valcambi SA following recent media reports. Steel Thyssenkrupp announced plans to spin off its materials trading division, tk accelis, with a shareholder vote set for 7 August and a Frankfurt listing targeted before year-end. Jefferies estimates the unit's enterprise value at €3.6 billion. Separately, Ukraine's rolled steel output has fallen 6.7% so far in 2026 to 2.34 million tonnes, with the EU remaining its key export market. European long steel traders are bracing for a weaker second half as the supply-led rally fades and attention shifts to lacklustre demand, with the EU's new steel safeguard regime taking effect on 1 July. Rare Earth Metals The U.S. Department of War and Phoenix Tailings announced a ~$1 billion initiative to rebuild America's rare earth industrial base, anchored by a $500 million Pentagon loan for a domestic processing plant targeting 2028 operations. At the G7, France is pushing partners to agree measures reducing Western reliance on Chinese critical minerals, including price supports, subsidies, and guaranteed purchases. Australia's International Graphite formed a joint venture with Italy's Alkeemia to establish a graphite processing hub in Porto Marghera, targeting first production in H2 2027. Forex The euro firmed to around $1.161 this week, its highest since early June, as the U.S.-Iran deal weighed on the dollar. The dollar index slipped to 99.55, with markets in a holding pattern ahead of Warsh's debut. ECB rate-hike expectations have moderated to roughly one more 25bp move this year, down from nearly two before last week's hike, as falling oil prices ease inflation fears. The yen remains pinned near 160 to the dollar despite the BOJ's rate hike to 1% on Tuesday, with Japanese authorities signalling readiness to intervene if weakness deepens. Sterling is steady at $1.342 ahead of today's UK inflation print. Watch Today The Fed rate decision and Warsh's first press conference (18:00/18:30 GMT) are the day's main event — watch for the updated dot plot and any shift in the easing bias. UK May CPI (06:00 GMT) and final eurozone May HICP (09:00 GMT) will set the tone for European trading. Sweden's Riksbank is expected to hold rates but may signal a hike later this year. U.S. May retail sales data (12:30 GMT) rounds out a packed calendar.