Daily metals

Base metals are under pressure in early Thursday trading as the hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve weighs on sentiment. Copper is trading at $13,710.50, down 0.4% from Wednesday's official close of $13,763.45. Tin is the biggest decliner, trading at $54,135 versus a $55,026 close — a 1.6% drop. Aluminium ($3,392.50, -0.5%), nickel ($17,800, -0.4%) and zinc ($3,573.50, -0.1%) are all softer. Lead bucks the trend marginally, trading at $1,956 versus Wednesday's close of $1,950.60, up 0.3%. Macro & Geopolitics Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut press conference dominated overnight markets. The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% but projections revealed nine of 19 policymakers now expect a hike this year — a sharp hawkish shift from March when none did. Markets are pricing an 85% probability of a December hike. The dollar index surged to 100.35, the S&P 500 fell 1.21%, and US 10-year yields rose to 4.461%. Separately, the US and Iran released the text of a 14-point interim peace deal extending the ceasefire by 60 days, though Trump warned he could resume military action. Oil fell over 1% on Thursday as the deal dampened supply fears. The Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank all announce rate decisions today — all expected to hold. G7 leaders agreed to coordinate critical minerals stockpiling, with lithium and nickel as pilot commodities. Base Metals Copper led losses overnight, falling over 1% in Asian trading to around $13,672 before recovering slightly. The stronger dollar and hawkish Fed projections outweighed relief from the US-Iran deal, which had previously eased energy-driven inflation fears weighing on risk appetite. Andy Home's Reuters column highlighted that LME copper options are heavily skewed to calls, with massive open interest at $15,500 and $17,000 strikes for September — a sign that bulls remain committed despite the pullback. In China, the CSPT is seeking to expand membership as smelters try to strengthen their hand in concentrate negotiations with miners, with spot TC/RCs stuck deep in negative territory. The LME issued a notice confirming that from 25 July, Russian-origin copper and cobalt can only be warranted in EU warehouses if imported before that date, aligning with the EU's 20th sanctions package. Aluminium recovered 0.8% on Wednesday via dip-buying after Monday's slump to a 2.5-month low, but gave back gains overnight. LME aluminium warehouse stocks sit at 316,525 tons — the lowest since September 2022. Norsk Hydro announced the closure of two US extrusion plants, cutting 350 jobs. ILZSG data showed the global zinc surplus narrowed to 26,500 tons in April from 56,300 in March, while the lead deficit narrowed to 23,000 tons. Precious Metals Gold rebounded over 1% to around $4,312 in Asian trading on Thursday, recovering from Wednesday's 1.7% post-Fed selloff. Falling oil prices following the US-Iran deal dampened inflation expectations and triggered short-covering. However, the repricing of Fed rate-hike expectations is capping upside — traders now see an 85% chance of a December hike. Intesa Sanpaolo sees gold averaging around $4,000 by year-end. Silver rose 1.5% to $69.03, platinum gained 1.3% to $1,759.77, and palladium added 1.4% to $1,330.26. Steel US steelmakers are thriving under tariff protection. Nucor guided Q2 EPS of $4.50–$4.60, well above consensus of $4.27, citing higher average selling prices and strong volumes. Steel Dynamics guided $3.51–$3.55 per share. Nippon Steel's vice chairman said US hot-rolled coil prices above $1,200/ton — more than double Asian levels — are supporting strong earnings at US Steel. The LME announced a landmark deal with the Shanghai Futures Exchange to launch a contract based on SHFE hot-rolled coil futures in October, aiming to boost liquidity and attract global steel participants. The UK-India free trade deal will enter force on 15 July after resolving a dispute over Britain's forthcoming steel tariff regime. Rare Earth Metals G7 leaders agreed to establish a joint critical minerals cooperation platform, with the IEA providing market monitoring and early warnings. Lithium and nickel were designated as pilot commodities for harmonised stockpiling mechanisms. Kenya's President Ruto said a critical minerals deal with the US — covering rare earths and other strategic minerals — is close, with processing to remain in-country. AMG Critical Materials opened a $15 million chrome metal production facility in Pennsylvania, becoming the sole US producer. The Trump administration continues converting federal grants into equity stakes in critical mineral companies, with investments spanning rare earths, lithium and quantum computing materials. Forex The dollar index rose 0.5% on Wednesday to 100.01 following the Fed's hawkish shift, its highest in nearly a week. The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1549 and was hovering around $1.1511 in Asian trading. The yen weakened past 160 per dollar — its lowest since July 2024 — despite this week's Bank of Japan rate hike, prompting fresh intervention warnings from Tokyo. Euro zone bond prices rallied for a fifth consecutive day as cooling oil prices eased inflation expectations, pushing German 10-year Bund yields to their lowest since early April. Markets still price one more ECB hike this year, though some analysts suggest that could be walked back if oil prices remain subdued. Watch Today Three central bank decisions land today: the Bank of England (12:00 GMT), Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank — all expected to hold. The BoE vote split and Governor Bailey's commentary will be closely watched after UK CPI held at 2.8% in May. US weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Business Index are due at 12:30 GMT. Euro zone April current account data is also scheduled.