Daily metals

LME base metals are trading mixed to slightly higher in early Monday trade, with the dollar easing from last week's one-year highs. Copper is trading at $13,320, down 0.1% from Friday's official close of $13,335.92, after dipping as much as 0.67% earlier in the session before recovering. Zinc is the notable laggard, trading at $3,459.50, off 0.4% from Friday's close of $3,472. Lead is the biggest mover to the upside, trading at $1,893, up 1.2% from Friday's close of $1,870.97. Aluminium ($3,130, -1.3%), nickel ($16,550, +0.2%) and tin ($50,300, +0.1%) are broadly steady. The early session tone is cautious as markets digest weekend Middle East developments. Macro & Geopolitics Weekend hostilities between the U.S. and Iran — including Iranian strikes on U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain — rattled markets before both sides agreed to halt attacks and return to talks over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 0.85% to $72.60 on the uncertainty, keeping inflation fears alive. Markets now price three Fed rate hikes this year, with an 80% probability of a December increase — a dramatic reversal from pre-conflict expectations of rate cuts. U.S. inflation broke above 4% in May for the first time in three years. British business growth expectations fell to their lowest level this year in June. Euro zone sentiment surveys due today will be closely watched. For European metals buyers, the strong dollar and elevated energy costs remain a persistent headwind. Base Metals Copper found support after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire renewal, with SHFE copper gaining 1.1% to 102,950 yuan/t. The dollar's three-session decline provided a tailwind for greenback-denominated commodities. In China, industrial profits grew 21.1% y/y in May, though the pace slowed from April's 24.7%. Non-ferrous mining profits surged 93.9% in January-May. A key structural story: Chinese smelters are pushing back against Antofagasta's proposal to link term concentrate pricing to spot indexes, where TCs have plunged to minus $126.80/t — a sign of deepening concentrate scarcity. Three Chinese brokerages — Yongan Futures, Orient Futures and Guotai Junan — are preparing LME membership applications, signalling China's growing footprint on the exchange. Precious Metals Gold slipped 0.6% to $4,063, heading for a fourth consecutive monthly loss and a 10.4% quarterly decline. Rising oil prices from the Iran conflict are fuelling inflation expectations and rate-hike bets, undermining the non-yielding metal. Silver fell 1.2% to $58.47, while platinum edged up 0.2% to $1,617 and palladium gained 0.4% to $1,214. Analysts suggest gold could revisit $5,000 only if de-escalation drives oil back to pre-war levels and the dollar softens. Steel Turkey's Kardemir signed a $2.5 million railway wheel export contract with a Bulgarian customer. European steel markets remain under pressure from weak demand and elevated energy costs, while producers continue to adjust capacity in response to challenging conditions. Rare Earth Metals China's plans to launch sulphur futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange in Q4 2026 have accelerated, driven by the Iran war's impact on sulphur price volatility. Solid sulphur prices in eastern China hit a record 11,850 yuan/t earlier this month before easing to 9,043.5 yuan/t — still up 292% year-on-year. While not a rare earth per se, sulphur is critical for copper and nickel refining. In the broader critical minerals space, the Greenlandic government declined to extend the Kvanefjeld rare earth exploration licence, a setback for European supply diversification efforts. Forex The dollar index stands at 101.33, just below the one-year high touched last week, supported by Fed rate-hike expectations. The Japanese yen remains pinned near 40-year lows at 161.78/dollar, with intervention risk the only thing preventing a break lower. For European metals buyers, the strong dollar continues to make dollar-priced LME metals more expensive in local currency terms. Watch Today Euro zone sentiment surveys for June will provide a key gauge of industrial and consumer health across the bloc. In the U.S., ADP employment data and nonfarm payrolls later this week will shape Fed rate expectations. CLSA UK, owned by China's CITIC Securities, begins trading as an LME member today.