Daily metals

In early Wednesday trading, base metals were mixed against Tuesday’s official closes. Aluminium was the weakest performer, down 0.8% at $3,338.50 a tonne, while tin declined 0.6% to $55,300. Nickel led the gains, rising 0.7% to $16,740, followed by zinc, up 0.5% at $3,746.50, and lead, up 0.4% at $1,877. Copper was little changed at $14,163. Macro & Geopolitics Oil extended its advance as attacks on commercial shipping and fading prospects for a U.S.-Iran agreement kept the Strait of Hormuz dispute unresolved. Brent crude approached $90 a barrel, intensifying concern that energy costs will prolong inflation pressure and squeeze industrial margins. Markets nevertheless reduced the implied chance of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 50% after weaker-than-expected U.S. payrolls data. July U.S. inflation is expected to show a 0.1% monthly rise and annual inflation of 3.4%. European equity futures pointed slightly lower, reflecting caution before the data and continuing geopolitical disruption across major trade routes. Base Metals Copper remained near Tuesday’s record close after furnace repairs halted operations at Freeport Indonesia’s 342,000-tonne-a-year Gresik smelter. Repairs are expected to be completed during the current quarter. Tight available LME stocks and a steep nearby backwardation reinforced supply concerns, although China’s lower Yangshan premium signalled softer import appetite. Further support came from a projected 2.6% decline in Chilean output this year and a 4.7% annual fall in Peru’s June production. Aluminium eased in early trading after an eight-session rally, but reduced Alunorte alumina output and Gulf logistics constraints remained supportive. Emirates Global Aluminium’s first-half cast-metal production fell to 1.006 million tonnes, with hot-metal production at Al Taweelah expected to return to pre-incident levels in the first quarter of 2027. Precious Metals Gold gained 0.9% to about $4,406 an ounce as reduced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening and heightened geopolitical tensions supported demand. The metal remained close to Tuesday’s 10-week high, with U.S. inflation data likely to determine whether the move can extend. Silver rose 1.2% to $65.46, platinum added 0.6% to $1,754.10 and palladium gained 0.8% to $1,370.86. Higher oil prices remain a two-sided influence, supporting demand for hedges while increasing the risk of tighter monetary policy. Steel Ukraine’s Zaporizhstal steelworks suspended production after a missile strike killed seven employees and damaged the plant. In Germany, record-low Rhine water levels are raising raw-material and transport costs across heavy industry. Salzgitter has shifted coal deliveries for its HKM operations from barges to rail, while limited waterway capacity is also affecting chemicals, utilities and construction-material suppliers. Persistently shallow water could tighten logistics availability and raise delivered costs for steelmakers along the Rhine corridor. Forex The euro traded around $1.1538, little changed, while the dollar index held near 99.85 before the U.S. inflation release. For euro-area scrap businesses, the relatively firm single currency continues to moderate the cost of dollar-priced metal, though that advantage could narrow if inflation revives expectations for a September Fed rate hike. The yen weakened to about 159.3 per dollar, having surrendered much of last week’s intervention-driven recovery. Further movement towards 160 could increase broader currency volatility during European trading. Watch Today Final July inflation readings for Germany and Italy are due during the European session. U.S. CPI follows at 14:30 CEST and is the main scheduled risk for metals, the dollar and bond yields. The U.S. Treasury will also sell $42 billion of 10-year notes later in the day, providing another test of rate expectations.