Daily Metals

THIS MORNING Zinc is the clear early leader, trading 0.9% above Thursday’s official close at $3,920 a tonne. Copper has gained 0.2% to $14,314, extending its recent strength. Lead is the weakest metal, down 0.5% at $1,871, while nickel has fallen 0.4% to $16,650. Aluminium and tin are each about 0.2% lower, leaving the early tone mixed despite continued tightness in copper and zinc. MACRO & GEOPOLITICS European markets entered Friday cautiously, with EURO STOXX 50 futures up 0.3% while U.S. futures were slightly lower before Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address. Markets priced roughly a 35% probability of a September rate rise and about a 74% probability of a rise by December, as inflation remained elevated. Brent crude eased to about $89.33 a barrel and was heading for a weekly decline of more than 5% after Iran and Oman agreed on arrangements to administer traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and share revenues. Washington, however, showed little interest in reviving direct talks with Tehran. Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports, energy facilities and industrial sites added to regional supply-chain risks. BASE METALS Copper was heading for an eighth consecutive weekly advance as fresh warrant cancellations renewed concern over accessible LME supply. Available metal in registered warehouses fell to 107,050 tonnes on Thursday from 166,775 tonnes a week earlier. Outflows from LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses into U.S. facilities ahead of a potential U.S. tariff on refined copper have also raised concerns about availability. Longer term, renewed Chilean-Argentine mining cooperation could unlock more than $20.7 billion of investment and add 540,000 tonnes of annual copper production, although development will take years. Zinc remained supported by low inventories, deeply negative concentrate treatment charges and a $231.75 cash-to-three-month backwardation. Chinese exports may ease supply concerns outside China, while aluminium, lead, nickel and tin were softer ahead of Warsh’s speech. PRECIOUS METALS Gold slipped 0.5% to around $4,580 an ounce as investors awaited Warsh’s address. Higher-rate expectations competed with support from fiscal concerns, central-bank buying and improving participation in gold ETFs and futures. Silver declined 0.6% to $68.85, platinum lost 0.3% to $1,840.78 and palladium eased 0.2% to $1,349.44. Northam Platinum’s annual profit rose nearly eightfold on record production and firmer prices, supporting a record final dividend and highlighting stronger producer margins despite platinum’s weekly decline. STEEL Russian attacks reportedly struck steelworks in Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia alongside Ukrainian ports, logistics centres and energy infrastructure. For European steel and scrap markets, the immediate concern is less the direct tonnage impact than the possibility of disrupted production, electricity supply and regional freight flows. Repeated damage could restrict Ukrainian finished-steel exports and raw-material movements, potentially increasing demand for alternative European supply while raising delivery and insurance costs across Black Sea-linked routes. RARE EARTH METALS Lynas Rare Earths is pursuing additional feedstock agreements with ionic-clay project developers while supporting the development of a U.S. magnet-making supply chain. Its annual profit increased to A$222.4 million from A$8 million, although it missed market expectations. The average selling price rose 59%, while the company also flagged rising costs and operational challenges. Discussions over the U.S. supply chain remain preliminary. European buyers will also watch the November expiry of China’s temporary suspension of controls covering several medium and heavy rare-earth products. FOREX The dollar was little changed near 99.20 and was up 0.4% this week as investors anticipated potentially hawkish signals from Warsh. A firm dollar can keep dollar-denominated metals expensive for eurozone consumers, particularly with copper and zinc already at elevated levels. The euro’s next move will depend partly on whether Warsh clarifies the Fed’s inflation strategy: a strong commitment to tighter policy could support the dollar, while another vague presentation could revive concerns over U.S. fiscal credibility and dollar debasement. WATCH TODAY France releases final second-quarter GDP and preliminary August inflation, followed by German unemployment figures and eurozone confidence data. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address is the main global event, with the final University of Michigan consumer-sentiment and inflation-expectations readings due later in the U.S. session.