Daily metals

This Morning Base metals are broadly softer at the start of Wednesday’s business day, with zinc leading the decline at $3,870 a tonne, 1.4% below Tuesday’s official close. Copper and lead are each down 0.8%, while tin has eased 0.5% and aluminium 0.4%. Nickel is virtually unchanged at $16,500. The retreat shows the stronger dollar and rising yields taking precedence over recent supply concerns. Macro & Geopolitics Renewed U.S.-Iran attacks have pushed Brent above $95 a barrel, reviving inflation concerns and accelerating the global bond selloff. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.8122%, while European borrowing costs remain elevated after eurozone inflation moved back above 3% in August. Markets now attach roughly a two-thirds probability to a Federal Reserve rate increase at its September 15-16 meeting, and an ECB rise this month is fully priced. U.S. manufacturing remained in expansion during August, but slower new orders and persistently high input costs cloud the demand outlook. For Europe, expensive energy and tighter financing conditions are an increasingly difficult combination for industrial consumers. Base Metals Copper and zinc are retreating as dollar strength and higher-for-longer rate expectations trigger profit-taking across industrial metals. Zinc is down 1.4%, although cancelled LME warrants have risen to their highest level in more than a year and the cash market remains in backwardation, indicating that physical availability is still tight. Copper is 0.8% lower despite Chile’s mining sector contracting 9.3% year on year in July because of lower grades, maintenance and adverse weather. Available LME copper stocks edged higher on Tuesday. Aluminium, tin and lead are posting moderate losses, while nickel is stable after its recent underperformance. Precious Metals Gold has fallen to around $4,303 an ounce, its lowest level since August 7 and a fourth consecutive decline, as rising Treasury yields and a firm dollar outweigh geopolitical demand. Prices remain below the 200-day moving average, adding technical pressure. Silver is down 0.9% at $63.68, platinum has slipped 0.9% to $1,725 and palladium is 1.3% lower near $1,294. U.S. employment data will provide further clues on whether expectations for a September rate increase strengthen. Steel Recent U.S. factory data underline continuing pressure throughout steel-consuming supply chains. Transportation-equipment manufacturers reported that elevated steel and aluminium prices linked to import tariffs remain a profitability challenge, while primary-metal producers expect difficult conditions through year-end. European mills and processors face additional pressure from oil above $95, elevated energy costs and rising bond yields. These conditions could support finished-steel prices, but they also risk weakening order volumes from construction, machinery and other financing-sensitive sectors. Rare Earth Metals The legal process surrounding Greenland’s Kvanefjeld project has moved forward, with defendants required to respond on the merits by October 27. Parallel litigation in Denmark remains pending but paused while the Greenland case proceeds. The development does not resolve the project’s future, but highlights the lengthy legal and political path facing potential rare-earth supply from the project. For European buyers seeking alternatives to Chinese material, regional resources remain strategically important but commercially uncertain. Forex The dollar index has advanced to 99.79, its highest since August 17, supported by rising U.S. yields and safe-haven demand. The euro ended Tuesday around $1.1589 and remains vulnerable as higher energy-import costs offset expectations of further ECB tightening. For European scrap merchants and metal consumers, euro weakness magnifies the local-currency cost of dollar-priced copper, zinc and aluminium even when LME quotations fall. The yen’s decline beyond 160 per dollar also reflects the strain created by diverging yields and unsettled global bond markets. Watch Today The U.S. ADP employment report and July factory-orders data are due later Wednesday and could shift expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 meeting. The Bank of Canada also announces its policy decision, with markets largely expecting no change. Strong employment or pricing signals would likely reinforce upward pressure on yields and the dollar.