Metals Daily

This Morning Copper is trading at $13,146 cash as of Tuesday morning, essentially flat against Monday's official close of $13,139. Tin is the standout mover, up $308 or 0.6% to $49,495, while nickel has added 0.8% to $19,053 as Indonesian supply fears persist. On the downside, zinc is the weakest performer, slipping 1.1% to $3,357, and aluminium has eased 0.4% to $3,562. Lead is unchanged at $1,956. The complex is caught between supply-side support from the Middle East conflict and demand-side caution ahead of a packed week of central bank decisions. Macro & Geopolitics The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% overnight but three of nine board members voted for a hike, underscoring inflation concerns from the Iran war. The Fed begins its two-day meeting today — likely Jerome Powell's last as chair — with rates expected to stay on hold. The ECB and Bank of England also meet this week, both expected to stand pat. Brent crude is hovering near $109/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Trump is reviewing a new Iranian proposal but is reportedly unhappy it omits Iran's nuclear programme, leaving the stalemate intact. U.S. GDP and PCE data are due later this week. Base Metals Nickel touched $19,540 on Monday — its highest since June 2024 — before settling at $19,160, driven by tightening Indonesian supply. Eramet said it plans to halt production at its nickel mine in Indonesia from next month, with its Weda Bay mine set to enter care and maintenance after exhausting its 12 million wet-ton allowance of nickel ore by mid-May. Indonesia set its nickel ore production quota at 260 million to 270 million tons for this year, compared with a demand estimate of 340 million to 350 million tons by the nickel smelter association FINI. Nickel producers in Indonesia are reliant on the Middle East for 75% of the sulphur used in sulphuric acid, with shortages from the Hormuz closure forcing several processors to trim output. Aluminium has climbed 12% since mid-March and is trading near four-year highs, with the Middle East accounting for about 7 million tons of annual smelting capacity, roughly 9% of estimated global supply this year. However, analysts expect aluminium prices to average $3,307 per metric ton in the third quarter, down 11% from current levels. Analysts flipped their 2026 balance outlook to a deficit of 910,000 tons, from a surplus of 80,000 tons in the previous poll. Zinc faces headwinds, with analysts forecasting a zinc surplus of 174,650 tons this year, widening to 285,000 tons in 2027. Precious Metals Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,670.89 per ounce, caught between safe-haven demand and inflation-driven expectations that rates will stay higher for longer. Higher crude oil prices can stoke inflation by raising transportation and production costs, increasing the likelihood of higher interest rates. Spot silver fell 1.2% to $74.61 per ounce, platinum was steady at $1,984.19, and palladium was down 0.9% at $1,463. Steel Nucor posted first-quarter revenue of $9.5 billion, compared with $7.83 billion a year earlier, beating analyst expectations of $8.88 billion. It posted a profit of $3.23 per share for the quarter ended April 4, compared with 67 cents per share a year earlier. CEO Leon Topalian highlighted "growing contributions from recent capital investments, and federal trade policies that continue to reduce the flood of unfairly traded imports into the United States". Gerdau reported a 33.6% increase in its first-quarter adjusted net profit to 1.01 billion reais. Gross profit in North America soared 93% year-on-year to 1.92 billion reais, while in Brazil, gross profit dropped 72.6% to 218 million reais. Separately, Iran has banned exports of steel slabs and sheets until May 30, with around 10 million tons of Iran's annual steel production capacity, or 25% to 30% of total output, knocked offline following damage to key facilities. Rare Earth Metals Critical Metals agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of European Lithium in an about $835 million deal, giving the U.S.-based miner full ownership of Greenland's Tanbreez rare earth project. The company currently holds a 92.5% interest in one of the world's largest known rare earth deposits. The Tanbreez project is seen as a critical alternative source of heavy rare earths, used in electric vehicles, medical equipment, oil refining, wind turbines and defense. China Rare Earth Resources and Technology reported Q1 net profit up 90.8% year-on-year to 172.6 million yuan. Blue Moon Metals confirmed a final investment decision to construct the Nussir Project mine and the Springer Tungsten mine, with ore production targeted to start in Q3-2027 with a 13-year mine life. Forex The euro is steady around $1.1725. The dollar index fell 0.16% to 98.49, with the euro up 0.01% at $1.1721. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.01% to 159.39. The yen remains near the 160 level that has previously prompted Tokyo to intervene in currency markets. Watch Today The Fed's two-day meeting begins today, with the policy statement due Wednesday at 20:00 CET. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its short-term policy rate steady at 0.75%, while the European Central Bank and Bank of England are expected to keep policy unchanged. U.S. consumer confidence for April is released at 16:00 CET. European earnings include Novartis, Barclays, BP and Airbus.