Metals Daily

This Morning Base metals are mostly lower in early Tuesday trading around 08:00 am, compared with Monday’s official close. Tin is the weakest performer, down 1.9% at $53,145 per tonne, followed by copper, off 0.6% at $13,649.50, zinc, down 0.5% at $3,594, and aluminium, 0.4% lower at $3,156. Nickel is the main gainer, rising 0.4% to $17,070, while lead is effectively unchanged at $1,858. Macro & Geopolitics Markets remain caught between lower energy costs and tighter financial conditions. Brent crude extended its retreat towards $87.55 a barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was having “good talks” with Iran following a pause in U.S. strikes, although reported drone attacks across the region underline the risk of renewed escalation. The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting, with markets assigning roughly a 38% probability to a quarter-point increase on Wednesday. Asian equities sold off sharply amid concerns over AI financing and stronger Chinese semiconductor competition, weakening broader risk appetite. For Europe, cheaper oil offers inflation relief, but a firm dollar and hawkish U.S. rate expectations remain headwinds for metals demand. Base Metals Rate concerns are outweighing support from cheaper energy this morning, particularly for copper, where traders fear tighter monetary policy could curb industrial demand. The physical market remains supportive: LME copper stocks have fallen 30% since the end of May. Aluminium is softer despite LME inventories reaching their lowest level on record since 1998, while Indonesian alumina shipment delays add another supply uncertainty. Zinc has slipped, but its cash premium over three-month metal widened to $73.27 per tonne on Monday, signalling nearby tightness amid smelter disruptions. Nickel is firmer despite delayed Indonesian nickel-product exports, lead is flat, and tin is leading the broader risk-driven pullback. Precious Metals Gold has reversed Monday’s advance, falling nearly 1% to around $4,036 an ounce as the dollar holds near a one-month high. Silver is down 2% near $57.23, platinum has lost 0.9% to about $1,606 and palladium is 1.6% lower around $1,271. The stronger dollar and uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve could raise rates on Wednesday are weighing on the precious-metals complex despite the sharp retreat in oil prices. Steel Nucor’s second-quarter results indicate that U.S. steel demand and pricing remain resilient. Adjusted earnings and revenue exceeded expectations, while pre-tax profit in its steel mills division rose nearly 85% year on year, supported by record shipments, constrained supply and supportive trade policies. The company expects higher pricing and strong volumes to support the current quarter. The read-through for Europe is indirect, but firm U.S. demand reinforces regionalised steel markets, while unresolved delays to Indonesian nickel pig iron shipments could tighten stainless-steel input availability. Rare Earth Metals Indonesia is moving to address a regulatory gap that has delayed mineral exports containing rare-earth by-products. No limits have been established for allowable rare-earth content in shipments, leading to checks affecting alumina, nickel pig iron and mixed hydroxide precipitate. Officials have asked government agencies and law-enforcement bodies not to obstruct trade while rules are absent. Indonesia continues to prioritise rare-earth elements for domestic use and has created a dedicated development agency, indicating tighter strategic oversight even as authorities seek to clear the immediate export bottleneck. Forex The euro is trading near $1.1370, below the $1.14 level, as the dollar remains close to a one-month high. Expectations of a possible Federal Reserve increase this week have kept the greenback supported even as falling oil prices ease some inflation pressure. For European scrap and metal buyers, the softer euro raises the local-currency cost of dollar-denominated commodities, partly offsetting relief from cheaper energy. The yen remains near a four-decade low at roughly 163.8 per dollar, keeping intervention risk in focus ahead of Friday’s Bank of Japan decision. Watch Today France’s consumer-confidence reading and July U.S. consumer-confidence data are due today and could shift expectations for industrial demand and interest rates. Markets will also monitor the opening day of the Federal Reserve meeting and results from Mercedes-Benz for signals on European manufacturing and automotive metals consumption.