Metals Daily

This Morning Base metals are mixed in early Wednesday trade at 08:00, compared with Tuesday’s official close. Nickel leads, up 0.5% at $16,855 per tonne, followed by aluminium, 0.4% higher at $3,159.50. Tin and zinc have each gained 0.3%, trading at $53,595 and $3,586.50 respectively. Copper is the main laggard, down 0.3% at $13,644, while lead has eased 0.2% to $1,855. Macro & Geopolitics Risk appetite remains fragile as the Asian technology selloff deepens and spreads towards European markets. Fresh Iranian missile attacks have reversed oil’s retreat, lifting Brent by more than 3% to around $87.19 a barrel and renewing concerns over energy costs and inflation. The Federal Reserve announces its decision at 18:00 GMT, with markets assigning roughly a one-third probability to a quarter-point increase and otherwise expecting rates to remain unchanged. A dollar close to a one-month high is adding pressure to commodity demand. For Europe, dearer energy, weaker equities and a firmer dollar present an unfavourable short-term backdrop. Base Metals Copper remains under pressure from the firm dollar, rate uncertainty and questions over whether heavy AI investment will generate the expected demand. China’s first-half net refined-copper imports fell 13% to 1.374 million tonnes, their weakest first-half total since 2017, although falling Shanghai stocks and rising import premiums point to renewed buying interest. Aluminium is benefiting from supply concerns and a 15% rebound in Chinese semi-manufactured exports. China’s refined-zinc imports collapsed 79%, while lead imports surged to 147,000 tonnes amid limited scrap availability. Refined-nickel imports rose 58%, and improving concentrate flows from Myanmar are helping stabilise tin supply. Precious Metals Gold is steady near $4,024.54 an ounce as traders await the Fed decision, with the firm dollar and the risk of higher rates offsetting support from renewed Middle East hostilities. Silver has risen 0.5% to $57.41, while platinum is down 0.9% at $1,590.24 and palladium has lost 1.1% to $1,255.50. The policy statement and Kevin Warsh’s comments will determine whether real-yield pressure on the complex intensifies. Steel SAIL and Indonesia’s Krakatau Steel are planning a stainless-steel slab plant with annual capacity of 500,000 tonnes and investment of up to $350 million. Production could begin within three to four years, with the output destined for finishing in India and finished products primarily supplied to Indian customers, while a smaller share could be exported to Europe and the Middle East. The project represents longer-term competition rather than an immediate supply change. Vietnam’s Hoa Phat also reported a 51% year-on-year increase in second-quarter profit. Rare Earth Metals Australia’s Meteoric Resources has signed a memorandum of understanding with Posco International to support financing and development of the Caldeira rare-earth project in Brazil. Posco could source up to 30% of production for seven years, subject to further talks, due diligence and definitive agreements, and may invest directly. The arrangement could also involve backing from South Korean policy lenders. The partners will assess processing technology in Brazil, supporting the development of a Brazil-to-South Korea supply chain for magnet materials used in electric vehicles, robotics, data centres and defence equipment. Forex The dollar remains near a one-month high before the Fed decision, maintaining pressure on dollar-priced metals. The euro ended Tuesday around $1.1387 and remains below $1.14, leaving European buyers exposed to higher local-currency replacement costs, particularly as oil rebounds. The yen is close to a four-decade low near 163.85 per dollar, keeping intervention concerns elevated before Friday’s Bank of Japan decision. Currency direction later today will hinge on whether the Fed holds rates and how strongly it signals a possible September increase. Watch Today The Federal Reserve decision is due at 18:00 GMT, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s scheduled comments at 18:30 GMT. Glencore’s half-year production update and Airbus earnings will offer signals on metals supply and European industrial demand. Microsoft, Meta and Qualcomm results may also influence expectations for data-centre investment and copper consumption.