Metals Daily

This Morning Base metals are mostly softer in early Tuesday trading, with three contracts below Monday’s official close, two higher and copper nearly flat. Tin is the strongest mover, rising 0.4% to $54,350 a tonne, while zinc has added 0.1% to $3,748. Nickel leads the declines, down 0.4% at $15,470, followed by lead, down 0.3% at $1,829.50, and aluminium, down 0.2% at $3,108. Copper is less than 0.1% lower at $14,416.50. Macro & Geopolitics Markets are balancing lower expectations of an October US interest-rate increase against a firm dollar and exceptionally high bond yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.3493%, its highest since 2002, after service-sector figures showed strong cost pressures. In Europe, France’s debt worries remain central, while Spain has added political uncertainty by calling a snap election for November. The French-German 10-year bond spread narrowed to 137 basis points but remains unusually wide. Brent crude is holding near $100 as rising Middle Eastern exports ease supply fears, although fighting around Yemen’s Bab el-Mandeb shipping route keeps geopolitical risk elevated. Base Metals Copper is almost unchanged as support from record US technology shares and reduced October Fed tightening expectations is being offset by the stronger dollar. The Shanghai Futures Exchange remains closed until Thursday, October 8, limiting Asian direction, while possible strikes at Chile’s Centinela and Escondida mines continue to support supply concerns. Aluminium has slipped despite disruption at Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte alumina refinery, where lost production and higher gas costs could create a second-half financial hit of up to $210 million. Pressure comes from Indonesia, whose August aluminium exports more than tripled year on year. Nickel and lead are weaker, while tin and zinc are higher. Precious Metals Gold has fallen 0.3% to about $4,129 an ounce, with the stronger dollar and multi-decade highs in US Treasury yields outweighing reduced expectations of an October Fed increase. Silver is down 0.6% at roughly $60.69, platinum has lost 0.5% to around $1,712 and palladium is 0.5% lower near $1,167. Middle East developments remain supportive in the background, but precious metals are currently taking their main direction from currencies, bond yields and US rate expectations. Steel Tsingshan’s Dinson Steel has agreed a rail partnership in Zimbabwe covering the transport of 600,000 tonnes of steel products and 1.1 million tonnes of coal. The agreement includes locomotives, wagons and track upgrades, which should improve the plant’s access to regional markets. In Europe, Thyssenkrupp is targeting October 28 for the separate listing of a 49% stake in its materials trading division, tk accelis. The business operates in 30 countries and recorded sales of €11.4 billion in the 2024/2025 financial year. Rare Earth Metals Japan and Australia have launched an annual finance-ministers’ dialogue that will include investment in critical minerals and the development of more secure supply chains. Australia’s natural-resource base, including rare earths and liquefied natural gas, makes the agreement relevant to manufacturers seeking more diversified supplies. Separately, Vietnam’s Masan High-Tech Materials is seeking approval to issue up to 5% of its shares to finance expansion at the Nui Phao tungsten mine and increase downstream processing. The plans could help diversify supplies of tungsten and other strategic materials used in defence and electronics. Forex The euro has recovered above $1.12 after briefly falling to $1.1160, its weakest level since May 2025. French debt concerns and Spain’s election announcement remain major risks, while high eurozone inflation limits the European Central Bank’s freedom to support growth. The dollar index is firm near 102.2, helped by elevated US bond yields despite reduced expectations of an October Fed increase. Sterling is also under pressure around $1.32. For European scrap buyers, the weak euro continues to increase the local-currency cost of dollar-priced metals and energy. Watch Today Germany’s August industrial orders are due this morning, followed by eurozone retail sales and construction PMI readings from Germany, France and the wider currency bloc. Britain’s September composite PMI and US August trade figures are also scheduled. Comments from several Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams, Michelle Bowman and Lorie Logan, could affect the dollar and rate expectations.