Metals Daily

This Morning At the start of Wednesday’s business day, the supplied trade references show tin 2.8% above Tuesday’s official close, the largest positive gap. Copper is 0.4% higher and nickel is up 0.1%. Lead is the weakest at 4.8% below Tuesday’s close, while aluminium and zinc are each about 1.0% lower. These are comparison gaps, not live Wednesday changes, because the supplied trade prices are from October 9. Macro & Geopolitics European markets face a mixed backdrop of stronger technology shares, high energy prices and central-bank risk. Renewed optimism over AI investment lifted Asian equities, which may support demand expectations for power-grid and data-centre metals. However, Brent crude rose above $115 a barrel after an attack on a Saudi refinery renewed supply concerns, adding pressure to European industrial costs. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates today, while the Bank of Canada is expected to raise them. New Zealand unexpectedly kept rates unchanged, but hotter Australian inflation showed that global price pressures remain difficult to control. Base Metals Aluminium gained 0.3% in early LME trade as falling warehouse stocks and limited immediately available metal supported buying. Copper was mixed, slipping 0.2% in London but rising 0.4% in Shanghai before the Fed decision. A precautionary shutdown at Peru’s Antamina mine added another supply risk after strong Chinese import demand supported Tuesday’s rally. Zinc rose 0.2%, with tight concentrate supply and low freely available stocks continuing to create sharp price swings. Lead fell 0.4%, nickel eased 0.1% and tin lost 0.5%. Longer term, planned overseas smelters backed by Chinese aluminium producers could push the global aluminium market into surplus next year. Precious Metals Gold fell 0.7% to around $4,030 an ounce as higher oil prices increased inflation concerns and strengthened the case for US rates to stay high. Silver dropped 1% to $53.82 and platinum lost 0.9% to $1,526.74, while palladium was broadly steady near $1,026. Analysts have reduced their 2026 forecasts for gold, platinum and palladium, citing high bond yields, a firm dollar and weaker automotive demand. Steel The LME’s new hot-rolled coil contract linked to Shanghai prices traded more than 550 lots across its first two active months on Tuesday. The cash-settled product gives exporters and international buyers another way to manage exposure to China’s large steel market. The February and September 2027 contract months did not go live while the exchange examined a possible technical issue. Wider adoption will depend on whether physical traders build regular liquidity in the coming months. Rare Earth Metals France’s strategic-metals envoy said Western economies could achieve an acceptable level of rare-earth supply diversification from China within three to five years. Projects led by Belgium’s Solvay and France’s Carester are progressing alongside developments in Australia, the US, Japan, Brazil and India. Refining capacity is expanding, but magnet production may remain the main bottleneck. Faster approvals, purchase guarantees and public financial support will be important if Western economies are to secure reliable non-Chinese supplies. Forex The euro was lower near $1.112 this morning as the dollar held around a two-week high. The dollar index stood near 102.4 before the Fed announcement, keeping pressure on dollar-priced metals for euro-based buyers. New Zealand’s dollar fell more than 1% after its central bank unexpectedly held rates at 2.75%. The Australian dollar edged higher following strong inflation figures. Watch Today The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 18:00 GMT, with traders focused on any signal about a possible December increase. The Bank of Canada also decides policy today. Alphabet and Microsoft report earnings after the US close, providing an important test of the AI investment story supporting copper and broader risk appetite.