Metals Daily

This Morning Copper is trading at $13,876 on Tuesday morning, slipping 0.1% from Monday's record closing price of $13,893 — a session in which the red metal surged 2.7% to its highest-ever close. Nickel and tin are the notable laggards, both down 1.1%, with nickel trading at $18,847 and tin falling back to $55,076 following Monday's strong rally. Aluminium has eased 0.5% to $3,561, while lead is marginally weaker at $1,979 (-0.2%). Zinc is the sole gainer, up 0.1% to $3,474. The complex is consolidating after Monday's broad advance, with risk appetite dampened by stalling US-Iran peace talks and caution ahead of US CPI data. Macro & Geopolitics President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "kept alive on life support" after rejecting Tehran's counter-proposal as "completely unacceptable," pushing Brent crude above $104 and stoking inflation fears across Europe. Bond yields rose globally — the 10-year US Treasury climbed to 4.41% — as markets fully priced out any Fed rate cuts for 2026. In Europe, traders are now pricing in two ECB hikes by September with a 75% probability of a third by year-end, reflecting energy-driven inflationary pressure on the continent. All eyes today are on US April CPI data, with headline inflation expected at 3.7% year-on-year. Trump's visit to Beijing on Wednesday for talks with Xi Jinping adds another layer of uncertainty, with markets hoping China could help broker a solution to the Strait of Hormuz situation. Base Metals Copper's record close on Monday was driven by a technical breakout above resistance at $13,500 and persistent supply concerns. Freeport-McMoRan dismissed reports of a further delay at Grasberg, reaffirming its target for a full restart by end-2027, but the mine's reduced recovery rate of 65% for H2 2026 keeps the supply outlook tight. Shanghai copper rose 2.5% on Tuesday — its largest single-day gain since March — on expectations of rising Chinese refined copper imports and energy supply concerns in Peru. Aluminium remains supported by production risks in the Middle East, with Morgan Stanley questioning why prices have not risen more sharply given the rapidly tightening market. The share of Russian aluminium in LME inventories fell from 92% in March to 72% in April as Indian metal returned to warrants. Tin reached its highest level since early March on expectations of chip shortages. Precious Metals Gold traded near $4,729, largely unchanged, as opposing forces — safe-haven demand from the Iran impasse versus expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates — kept the metal range-bound. ING sees $5,000/oz by year-end but flags near-term uncertainty from the stalling peace talks. Silver significantly outperformed on Monday, rising 7% to around $86, while platinum jumped 3% to $2,120. Indian Prime Minister Modi called on citizens to pause gold purchases for one year to protect foreign exchange reserves, rattling jewellery stocks in the world's second-largest gold market. Steel Thyssenkrupp cut its 2026 revenue outlook on Tuesday, now expecting a revenue decline of up to 3%, citing lower steel prices and weaker demand from the automotive sector — a clear signal of subdued industrial activity across Europe. Q2 EBIT collapsed 65% to €65 million, badly missing the consensus estimate of €231 million. SSAB reported delays to the commissioning of its electric arc furnace in Oxelösund due to permitting issues, but does not expect a material impact on earnings. In the UK, Prime Minister Starmer announced plans to take full ownership of British Steel after no buyer could be found for the Chinese-owned company. Rare Earths Arafura Rare Earths signed A$200 million in convertible notes with NRFC, securing financing for its Nolans project. Energy Transition Minerals signed an offtake MOU with Traxys for up to 100% of concentrate from its Penouta tin-tantalum project in Spain. Wednesday's Trump-Xi summit could touch on rare earth supply chains, with Beijing having tightened its licensing regime since last year's trade truce. FX The dollar index held near 97.96, supported by rising yields and safe-haven inflows but capped by Iran war uncertainty. The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.1762 ahead of final German April HICP data and the ZEW sentiment survey this morning. Sterling weakened to $1.361 amid political turbulence following Labour's local election defeats. The yen continued to slide, with dollar-yen reaching 157.5 as US Treasury Secretary Bessent met Japanese officials in Tokyo — though Japan's finance minister offered no explicit comment on intervention. For European scrap dealers, the weaker euro against the dollar makes dollar-denominated metal imports marginally more expensive. On the Radar Today Final German April inflation data and the May ZEW sentiment survey are released this morning, offering a read on how energy costs are affecting Europe's largest economy. The US April CPI at 12:30 GMT is the main event of the day — a hot reading could further cement the no-rate-cuts narrative and weigh on metals. Fed speakers Williams and Goolsbee are also scheduled. Freeport CEO Kathleen Quirk will discuss Grasberg operations at the Bank of America Global Metals Conference.