Theme of the Day: Global Copper Market in 156kt Surplus in Jan-Sep 2025

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for Sep world copper supply and demand in its Nov 2025 Copper Bulletin. For Jan-Sep 2025, the world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), indicated a surplus of ~94kt. Adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks suggested a market surplus of ~156kt.World copper mine production increased by about 2%, with concentrate production increasing by 1.5% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) by 3.5%. Lower grades and incidents at some major copper mines, including Kamoa and Grasberg, are constraining global growth. In Peru, copper mine production increased by 2.8% YoY mainly due to higher output at Las Bambas, Quellaveco and Toromocho. Output in the DRC grew by about 8% mainly as a consequence of the expansion of the Kamoa mine (concentrates) and the TFM/KFM mines (SX-EW). Output in Chile was flat; higher output at the Escondida, Centinela, Mantos Copper and Codelco mines was offset by reductions mainly at Collahuasi, Los Pelambres and Quebrada Blanca. Indonesian output declined by 35%, due to lower output at Grasberg primarily reflecting a planned major maintenance project and the suspension of mining activities following a severe mud rush incident that occurred on 8 Sep, and lower production at Batu Hijau due to mine sequencing. In Mongolia, copper concentrate production grew by 37% (Oyu Tolgoi UG project ramp-up).World refined copper production increased by about 4.3% with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) up by 4% and secondary production (from scrap) up by 5.5%. Production in China and the DRC, that currently represent about 57% of the world's total production, is estimated to have increased by about 9.4%. Output in Asia (ex-China) is assessed to have declined by about 3.9%, mainly due to lower output in Japan and the Philippines. In Indonesia, the Amman refinery produced its first cathode in late Mar, however, the Manyar refinery started production in Jul. Production in India increased by 22% mainly as a result of improved operating capacity rates. Overall Chilean refined copper production declined by 10%, with electrolytic production down by 14%, impacted by smelter maintenance shutdown, and electrowinning (SXEW) output down by 8%. Global secondary refined production was up by 5.5% mainly due to growth in China.World apparent refined copper usage grew by about 5.5%. Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks) is estimated to have grown by around 8.5%. Chinese net refined copper imports declined by 1% (refined copper imports rose by 2% and copper exports increased by 17%). China’s share of total word refined copper usage is currently about 58%. World ex-China usage grew by 1.6% with growth in a number of Asian and MENA countries, largely offset by weak demand in the EU and Japan.At the end of Oct 2025, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 574,953t, an increase of 144,725t (+33.6%) from stocks held at end of Dec 2024. Stocks were down at the LME (-137,750t) and up at SHFE (+41,968t) and COMEX (+240,507t).