Theme of the Day: Global Copper Market in 16kt Surplus in Jan 2026

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for Jan world copper supply and demand in its Mar 2026 Copper Bulletin. In Jan 2026, the world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), indicated a surplus of 17kt. This compares with a surplus of about 60kt in Jan 2025. Adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks suggested a market surplus of 16kt. World copper mine production increased by about 2.2% in Jan 2026, with an increase in concentrate production of 2% and in solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) of 2.8%. Although concentrate production is estimated to be lower in Indonesia and DRC, compared to Jan 2025 (impact of 2025 incidents at Grasberg and Kamoa), global mine production benefited from additional output from projects ramping up to capacity in a number of countries. In Peru, copper mine production rose by 3% mainly due to increases at Antamina, Las Bambas, Antapaccay and Toromocho mines that more than offset declines at the Southern Peru Copper, Cerro Verde and Marcobre operations. Output in Chile declined by 3% as higher output at Centinela, Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca was more than offset by reductions mainly at Spence, El Teniente and Los Pelambres mines. Production in the DRC is estimated to have grown by 1%: growth of about 7.5% in SX-EW output is estimated to have been partially offset by a 24% decline in concentrate production (impacted by the May 2025 seismic event at Kamoa mine). Mongolian copper concentrate production is estimated to have grown by about 35% as a consequence of the Oyu Tolgoy UG project ramp-up. Indonesian output is estimated to be significantly lower compared to Jan 2025, as production at the Grasberg mine is still constrained by the impact of a severe mud rush incident that occurred last Sep. World refined copper production grew by about 1% during Jan 2026 with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) declining by 1.4% and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 11%. Growth in world refined copper production was constrained by a fall in Chilean output and limited growth in other major copper producing countries. Chilean refined copper production declined by 25%, with electrolytic production (from concentrates) down by 63%, impacted by smelter maintenance shutdown, and electrowinning (SX-EW) output lower by 6%. Production in China and the DRC, that currently represent about 59% of global production, is estimated to have increased by a combined 5% (China +4.5% and DRC +7.5%). World refined copper output excluding these two countries declined by about 4.5%. Output in Asia (ex-China) is estimated to have declined by 8.5% mainly due to lower output in Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines. Production in India is estimated to have increased by 10% due to improved operating capacity rates and the ramp-up of the Adani refinery. Global secondary refined production (from scrap) increased by 10% mainly due to growth in China. World apparent refined copper usage rose by about 2.5% in Jan 2026. Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks) is estimated to have grown by around 1%. Chinese net refined copper imports fell by 44%. China's share of total world refined copper usage is currently about 58%. Preliminary data indicate that world ex-China usage increased by about 4% with growth in a number of Asian and MENA countries offsetting weak demand in the EU. As of the end of Feb 2026, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 1,195,072t (highest level since Mar 2003). Stocks increased by 450,957t (+61%) compared with stocks held at the end of Dec 2025, and were up at the LME (+112,350t), at SHFE (+246,187t) and COMEX (+92,420t).