Theme of the Day: Global Copper Market in 302kt Surplus in Jan-Feb 2026

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for Feb world copper supply and demand in its Apr 2026 Copper Bulletin. In the first two months of the year, the world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), indicated a surplus of 310kt. This compares with a surplus of about 192kt in the same period of 2025. Adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks suggested a market surplus of 302kt. Preliminary data indicates that world copper mine production increased by about 0.4% in the first two months of 2026, with a decline in concentrate production of -0.2% and an increase in solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) of 2.5%. Although concentrate production is significantly reduced in Indonesia and the DRC, compared to the first two months of 2025 (impact of 2025 incidents at Grasberg and Kamoa mines), global mine production benefited from additional output from projects ramping up to capacity in a number of countries. In Peru, copper mine production rose by 2.9% mainly due to increases at Antamina, Las Bambas and Antapaccay and mines that more than offset declines at the Southern Peru Copper, Toromocho, Cerro Verde and Marcobre operations. Output in Chile declined by 3.9% as higher output at Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca was more than offset by reductions mainly at Spence, El Teniente, Escondida and Los Pelambres mines. Production in the DRC is estimated to have grown by 1%: growth of about 9% in SX-EW output is estimated to have been partially offset by a 34% decline in concentrate production, mainly due to reduced output at Kamoa mine. Mongolian copper concentrate production is estimated to have grown by about 34% as a consequence of the Oyu Tolgoy UG project ramp-up. Indonesian output is estimated to be significantly lower YoY, as production at the Grasberg mine is still constrained by the impact of a severe mud rush incident that occurred last Sep. Preliminary data indicates that world refined copper production grew by about 2.5% in the first two months of 2026 with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) declining by 0.5% and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 17%. Production in China and the DRC, that currently represent about 59% of global production, is estimated to have increased by a combined 6.3% (China 5.7% and DRC 9%). World refined copper output excluding these two countries declined by about 2.3%. Chilean refined copper production declined by -8.6%, with electrolytic production (from concentrates) down by 14%, impacted by smelter maintenance shutdown, and electrowinning (SX-EW) output lower by 6%. Output in Asia (ex-China) is estimated to have declined by 7% mainly due to lower output in Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines. Production in India is estimated to have increased by 15% due to improved operating capacity rates and the ramp-up of the Adani refinery. Global secondary refined production (from scrap) increased by 17% mainly due to growth in China. Preliminary data suggests that world apparent refined copper usage remained essentially unchanged in the first two months of 2026. Although World ex-China usage is estimated to have increased by 2.7%, Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks) is estimated to have declined by around 2%, impacted by a 49% decline in Chinese net refined copper imports. China's share of total world refined copper usage is currently about 58%. As of the end of Mar 2026, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 1,254,701t (highest level since Jan 2003). Stocks increased by 510,586t (+69%) compared with stocks held at the end of Dec 2025, and were up at the LME (+216,600t), at SHFE (+213,793t) and COMEX (+80,193t).