Daily metals

Global equities ended weaker on fresh pressure from the tech sector, while markets continued to weigh on the possibility of a more hawkish Fed ahead of tomorrow's price data. Metals rose amid renewed supply constraints - nickel rallies as Indonesia cuts production quotas. Precious metals gained despite a strong US jobs report. Geopolitical risks pushed energy markets higher. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries fell by 7bp to 4.11%, while the USD index was steady at 97.0. US businesses and consumers paid ~90% of the cost of Donald Trump’s tariffs last year, according to new Fed research that undercuts the president’s claim that foreign companies would bear the burden. The study by the New York Fed found that the vast majority of tariff costs were passed through to Americans in the first 11 months of 2025, although exporters shouldered an increasing amount as the year progressed. Precious metals were weaker, as investors pared back expectations for Fed policy easing and not helped by a further sell-off in Bitcoin. The move followed stronger-than-expected US jobs data, with employment posting its largest increase in over a year in Jan and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declining, signalling a resilient labour market at the start of 2026. Investors are now awaiting today’s US consumer price index report for further insights. Gold tested the $5,100/oz level but failed to hold above it, while silver briefly touched $86/oz before retreating below $84/oz later in the session. Elevated margin requirements and recent volatility continue to constrain broader participation, leaving moves vulnerable to rapid reversals. Base metals ended lower as risk appetite waned, only tin bucked the downward trend. The inability to sustain upside momentum suggests that rallies continue to meet supply from profit-taking rather than fresh conviction buying. Tin prices have cooled from the late-Jan intraday all-time-high of $59,040/t to closer to the $50,000 mark as Chinese speculators take profits. The market remains in a fundamentally similar position as it was last month, with slow progress in Wa, recovering Indonesian supply, and resilient demand. Reports that 2026 production quotas in Indonesia are being cut is good news that should go some way to stabilizing the nickel market. Authorities have announced that nickel ore production would be reduced to 260–270Mt, down from 379Mt in 2025. However, more will be required to sustainably lift nickel prices. Aluminium costs for American buyers have jumped 40% since the tariffs doubled, pushing total prices above $5,200/t. Industries like automotive, construction, and packaging are getting hammered, with the consumer feeling the impact. Iron ore was steady as China’s central bank reaffirmed its pledge to continue implementing moderately loose monetary policy, prioritising stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices. However, headwinds are building for the iron ore market. Chinese demand is on a structural decline, while supply is on the increase as the giant Simandou mine in Guinea ramps up.