Daily metals

Copper is trading at $13,302.50 as of Wednesday 06:37, a 1.0% premium to Tuesday's official close of $13,166.50, pushing further toward January's all-time high. Tin continues its explosive run at $52,880, up 5.1% from Tuesday's $50,300 close — the standout mover across the complex. Nickel has gained 1.2% to $18,125, zinc is 0.8% firmer at $3,406, and aluminium has added 1.2% to $3,129.50. Lead is up 0.8% at $1,970.50. The broad-based strength reflects continued post-Lunar New Year momentum and growing conviction that the U.S. tariff reset will deliver lower effective rates on Chinese goods.

Wall Street's Monday selloff deepened the divergence between U.S. and global equities — the S&P 500 is now flat year-to-date while Europe's STOXX 600 is up 6% and South Korea's KOSPI has doubled in a year. Trump warned trading partners against renegotiating existing deals, threatening higher duties under alternative trade laws. The Yale Budget Lab pegs the new average effective tariff at 13.7%, potentially falling to 9.1% if the 150-day statutory limit under Section 122 holds. Fed Governor Waller signalled openness to a March rate pause contingent on strong February jobs data. Oil's disinflationary drag is evaporating — Brent is now only 2% cheaper year-on-year versus 30% cheaper in early January — adding a fresh complication for rate-cut expectations. U.S.-Iran tensions remain elevated after the State Department pulled non-essential personnel from the Beirut embassy.

Chinese liquidity is the dominant force, with SHFE copper jumping 1.4% on its first session back and the CSI 300 gaining 1.3% as investors priced in lower U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Morgan Stanley estimates the tariff reset could cut the average rate on Chinese imports from 32% to 24%, while Goldman Sachs sees a net 5 percentage point reduction. ING noted that the Supreme Court ruling "reduced immediate risks to global trade flows and industrial demand" but cautioned that sector-specific tariffs on copper, aluminium and steel remain in place, capping upside. LME copper warehouse stocks at 241,825 tons — the highest since March 2025 — continue to signal weak physical offtake. Nickel drew support from Indonesia's potential revocation of PT QMB New Energy Materials' environmental permit. Tin's 5%+ surge reflects persistent supply tightness amplified by speculative flows.

Gold retreated from a three-week high above $5,200, falling over 1% to around $5,154 as profit-taking and a firmer dollar weighed after Monday's 2.8% surge in U.S. futures. Analysts noted the absence of panic selling in Asian gold markets despite the Wall Street rout, suggesting underlying safe-haven demand remains intact. Silver dropped more than 3% to $85.21 after touching a two-week high. Platinum shed 2.9% to $2,092 and palladium fell 2.1% to $1,706.50. Three rate cuts remain priced for 2026, providing a floor for bullion.

Nippon Steel is raising $8.3 billion including $3.2 billion in convertible bonds, signalling confidence in its capital deployment strategy. Gerdau's Q4 results laid bare the transatlantic divide in steel markets: North American gross profit surged 172% year-on-year to 1.56 billion reais while Brazilian gross profit collapsed 87.2% to 161 million reais, with the company citing import pressure and seasonality at home. Hyundai Motor's president warned that sector-specific tariffs on autos and steel are "highly likely to remain in place" despite the Supreme Court ruling, and may even intensify as the administration pivots to alternative legal authorities.

China prohibited exports of dual-use items to 20 Japanese entities linked to Japan's military, targeting divisions of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and other conglomerates. Beijing framed the restrictions as curbing Japan's "remilitarisation" and nuclear ambitions. A further 20 entities including Subaru and Mitsubishi Materials were placed on a watch list requiring individual export licences. While China insisted the measures would not affect normal trade, the escalation underscores Beijing's willingness to weaponise supply chain controls in strategic materials — a pattern that has previously extended to rare earth export restrictions.

The onshore yuan hit its strongest level against the dollar since May 2023, trading at 6.8963, as analysts expect lower U.S. tariffs to bolster Chinese exports. Goldman Sachs predicts a net 5 percentage point tariff reduction on Chinese goods. The euro edged up to $1.1787 while the dollar weakened against safe-haven currencies, with the Swiss franc and yen both gaining. The Nikkei reported that U.S. authorities initiated January's "rate checks" on the yen and stood ready for joint intervention at Tokyo's request, pushing dollar-yen to 155.21. Bitcoin tumbled below $64,000.

Trump's State of the Union address, delivered after U.S. markets close on Tuesday, could signal further tariff escalation or trade policy shifts — watch for any targeting of Supreme Court justices or new sector-specific measures. U.S. Consumer Confidence data for February is due at 1500 GMT. Six Fed speakers are scheduled including Goolsbee, Bostic, Collins, Barkin, Cook, and Waller. Nvidia earnings later this week could ripple through risk sentiment given the chipmaker's ~8% weighting in the S&P 500.