Daily metals

Global equities fell amid lingering uncertainty surrounding the end of the war in the Middle East. The US insists talks are ongoing even as Iran rejects outreach. Energy markets oscillate as Middle East de-escalation route opens. Industrial and precious metals remained under pressure. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries rose by 7bp to 4.41%, while the USD index was 0.3% weaker at 99.9. The conflict in the Middle East is testing the resilience of the global economy, according to the OECD, in an interim report. Global GDP growth is projected to ease to 2.9% in 2026 before edging up to 3.0% in 2027. The energy price surge and the unpredictable nature of the evolving conflict in the Middle East will raise costs and lower demand, offsetting the tailwinds from strong technology-related investment and production, lower effective tariff rates and the momentum carried over from 2025. Annual GDP growth in the US is projected to moderate from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, as strong AI-related investment is gradually offset by a slowdown in real income growth and consumer spending. Euro area GDP growth is anticipated to ease to 0.8% in 2026, as higher energy prices weigh on activity, before increasing to 1.2% in 2027 helped by stronger defence spending. In China, growth is projected to ease to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Precious metals remained under pressure as escalating US-Iran tensions pushed crude prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns and prompting investors to abandon hopes for US interest rate cuts this year. The uncertainty drove the USD and Treasury yields higher, with markets now assigning a 38% probability of a rate hike by Dec and a 93% chance of unchanged rates at the Fed’s Apr meeting. Just 3% of traders expect a rate cut in Dec, a sharp reversal from pre-conflict expectations of at least two cuts in 2026. Gold turned lower after failing at key technical resistance around $4,600, as crude oil extends gains on renewed supply risks and war concerns. The recent price action highlights how gold, during a supply-driven macro shock, has shifted into a source of liquidity - behaving more like a risk asset and moving in line with broader market stress, thereby failing to provide traditional safe-haven support. On the downside, Fibonacci retracement support is seen at $4,407 and $4,348, while the 200-day moving average at $4,108 remains the key line in the sand. Base metals ended weaker, pricing in a weaker global economy with fragile optimism offset by continued geopolitical uncertainty and lack of tangible de-escalation. Lw conviction and selling on strength suggest upside remains limited while uncertainty in the Middle East remains the case. The aluminium market is continuing to signal tightness through a cash-to-three-month backwardation of around $50/t. Despite this supportive structure, prices remain capped, suggesting that macro flows continue to dominate over physical fundamentals. Nickel was supported by news that Indonesia’s president approved tariffs on coal and nickel exports. However, while policy support can drive short-term upside, the market remains sensitive to positioning and liquidity dynamics which should cap the upside potential. Iron ore prices eased from the recent highs. China’s steel production fell to 160Mt in Jan-Feb, falling by 3.6% YoY, which dampened sentiment.