Daily metals

LME base metals are broadly firmer this Wednesday morning on renewed de-escalation hopes in the Iran conflict. Tin is the standout performer, up 1.6% (+$763) versus Tuesday's official close, followed by lead at +1.7% (+$31) and copper at +0.7% (+$87) to $12,417. Nickel gained 0.6% (+$109) to $17,215. Aluminium is the sole decliner, slipping 0.3% (−$9) to $3,458 as traders weigh whether ceasefire progress could ease the Gulf supply fears that drove its 10.6% monthly surge in March. Zinc is essentially flat at $3,221.

President Trump said overnight the U.S. could end military operations against Iran within two to three weeks, even without a deal — sparking a broad risk rally across equities and bonds. Asian markets surged, with the Kospi up as much as 7.7% on blowout Korean export data, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%. Trump will address the nation on Iran at 0100 GMT Thursday. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and a Wall Street Journal report that the UAE may seek UN authorisation to force it open adds a new dimension. Euro zone inflation breached the ECB's 2% target in March on the oil shock, and markets have now priced out all Fed rate cuts for 2026. European futures opened firmly higher, with DAX futures up 1.8% and FTSE futures up 0.9%.

Copper rose to a two-week high of $12,463 in early Asian trade as the weaker dollar and ceasefire optimism lifted sentiment. Chinese physical demand is showing signs of recovery — SHFE stocks fell for a second consecutive week to 359,135 tonnes — but LME warehouse stocks remain elevated near eight-year highs, capping upside. Ivanhoe Mines cut its 2026 copper anode production forecast at Kamoa-Kakula to 290,000–330,000 tonnes. Aluminium eased slightly after recording its best month in nearly two years (+10.6%), driven by Gulf smelter damage — Iranian strikes hit Alba and EGA facilities accounting for 8% of global supply. European duty-paid premiums surged 16% since Friday to $594/t, the highest since June 2022. Goldman Sachs now projects a 570,000-tonne global aluminium deficit in 2026. PT Inalum called for Indonesia to impose a moratorium on new alumina and aluminium plants.

Gold climbed above $4,700 to its highest since March 20, supported by the weaker dollar and de-escalation hopes, though gains were capped by lingering rate-hike fears. The metal ended March down over 11% — its steepest monthly fall since October 2008 — as the dollar emerged as the safe-haven winner of the Iran conflict. Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end target of $5,400. Silver slipped 0.8% to $74.53 after a 7% surge on Tuesday, while platinum breached $1,960. Brazil's central bank doubled its gold holdings in 2025, making bullion its second-largest reserve asset after the dollar.

Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed, with rebar flat and hot-rolled coil dipping 0.1%. China's factory PMI expanded at the fastest pace in a year in March, offering some demand support, while the central bank pledged to maintain loose monetary policy. In Europe, Grupa Kety reported Q1 results in line with expectations but noted no signs of economic improvement on the continent, with production capacity utilisation at around 90%.

Japan and France are set to agree on a roadmap for diversifying rare earth supplies away from China, with plans for a public-private heavy rare earths refining project in southwestern France by year-end. Australia's Arafura Rare Earths secured A$230 million in equity from Germany's KfW and Export Finance Australia for its Nolans NdPr project. Meanwhile, Canberra blocked a Hong Kong investor's voting rights in Northern Minerals over suspected breaches of a national-interest divestment order targeting China-linked shareholders — underscoring Western governments' tightening grip on critical mineral supply chains.

The dollar index slipped to 99.81 after its biggest one-day drop since March 19, as de-escalation hopes prompted traders to reassess Fed policy expectations. Fed funds futures now price a 32% probability of a July rate cut, up sharply from 7.5% a day earlier. The yen strengthened to 158.73 per dollar after Japan's finance minister warned of readiness to act against FX volatility. For European traders, the euro benefits from dollar softness, though the ECB's inflation overshoot in March and President Lagarde's openness to rate hikes limit upside. Sterling and the Australian dollar led G10 gains on Tuesday.

A packed data calendar could move markets: euro zone manufacturing PMIs (final, March) and February unemployment at 0900 GMT, followed by U.S. retail sales, ISM manufacturing PMI, and ADP employment in the afternoon. Trump's address to the nation on Iran at 0100 GMT Thursday will be the key event for overnight positioning. ECB board member Cipollone speaks, and Germany auctions 7-year debt.