Theme of the Day: Global Copper Market in 386kt Surplus in Q126

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for Mar world copper supply and demand in its May 2026 Copper Bulletin. In Q126, the world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), indicated a surplus of 396kt. This compares with a surplus of about 135kt in the same period of 2025. Adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks suggested a market surplus of 386kt. Preliminary data indicates that world copper mine production remained essentially unchanged in Q126, with a decline in concentrate production of -1.1% offsetting an increase in solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) of 3.3%. Although global mine production benefited from additional output from projects ramping up to capacity in a number of countries, global growth was offset by important declines in concentrate production in Chile, DRC, and Indonesia. In Indonesia, concentrate production declined by 42% as output at the Grasberg mine is still constrained by the impact of a severe mud rush incident that occurred last Sep. Chilean mine production declined by 5.8% as higher output at Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca was more than offset by reductions mainly at Spence, El Teniente, Escondida and Los Pelambres mines. Mine production in the DRC is estimated to have increased by only 0.5%: growth of about 10% in SX-EW output has been partially offset by a 36% decline in concentrate production, due to reduced output at Kamoa mine (impact of a seismic event in 2025). In Peru, copper mine production rose by 3.3% mainly due to increases at Antamina, Las Bambas and Antapaccay mines that more than offset declines at the Southern Peru Copper, Quellaveco and Marcobre operations. Mongolian copper concentrate production is estimated to have grown by about 36% as a consequence of the Oyu Tolgoy UG project ramp-up. Preliminary data indicates that world refined copper production grew by about 4.5% in Q126 with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) growing by 3.8% and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 7.6%. Production in China and the DRC, that currently represent about 60% of global production, is estimated to have increased by a combined 9% (China 8.8% and DRC 10%). World refined copper output excluding these two countries declined by about -1.4%. Chilean refined copper production declined by -11.7%, with electrolytic production (from concentrates) down by 24%, impacted by smelter operational constraints and maintenances, and electrowinning (SX-EW) output lower by 5.7%. Output in Asia (ex-China) is estimated to have declined by 4% mainly due to lower output in Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Production in India is estimated to have increased by 25% due to improved operating capacity rates and the ramp-up of the Adani refinery. Global secondary refined production (from scrap) increased by 7.6% mainly due to growth in China. Preliminary data suggests that world apparent refined copper usage increased by 0.8% in Q126. Although World ex-China usage is estimated to have increased by 1.7%, Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks) is estimated to have remained essentially unchanged, impacted by a 40% decline in Chinese net refined copper imports. China's share of total world refined copper usage is currently about 58%. As of the end of Apr 2026, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 1,148,760t (highest level since Jan 2003). Stocks increased by 404,648t (+55%) compared with stocks held at the end of Dec 2025, and were up at the LME (+253,350t), at SHFE (+46,683t) and COMEX (+104,615t).