Daily Metals

THIS MORNING The supplied trade indications are above Monday’s official close for five of the six base metals. Tin has the widest gap at 4.1%, followed by zinc at 2.5%, while lead is 2.2% below its official close. Copper and aluminium are both 1.3% higher, and nickel is up 0.9%. These indications date from October 9, so the differences should not be treated as price moves recorded early today. MACRO & GEOPOLITICS European markets face a cautious start as falling Asian shares and renewed unrest in France reduce investors’ appetite for risk. Curfews were introduced in parts of Paris and several other French cities, adding to concerns about the country’s finances. Brent crude remained near a five-month high at around $110 a barrel after further violence in the Middle East and uncertainty over whether the United States will fully implement a waiver of restrictions affecting Russian energy. High energy costs remain an inflation risk for European manufacturers. Markets see an 82% chance that the US Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, while a December increase remains widely expected. BASE METALS Copper was almost unchanged at $14,339.50 a tonne early Tuesday as limited Chinese buying at high prices balanced tighter mine supply. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 forecast to $14,700, but growing US inventories ahead of possible import tariffs capped enthusiasm. BHP reported a 19% year-on-year fall in quarterly copper output after disruptions in Chile and Australia, although it kept full-year guidance unchanged. China’s September copper scrap imports rose 28.55% from a year earlier, while aluminium scrap imports increased 2.21%. Elsewhere, LME zinc and lead made small gains, nickel was narrowly higher, and aluminium and tin eased. The moves point to firm but selective demand rather than broad-based buying. PRECIOUS METALS Gold edged 0.1% higher to about $4,145 an ounce as a softer dollar offset pressure from high bond yields and expectations of further interest-rate increases. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged. Silver gained 0.7% to $57.48 and platinum rose 0.7% to $1,651.25, while palladium slipped 0.2% to $1,117.87. Geopolitical tension and elevated oil prices continue to support demand for defensive assets. STEEL US steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs reported its first quarterly profit in more than two years and raised its 2027 earnings forecast, citing stronger contract prices and lower costs. Management said customers were seeking more contracted steel for 2027 than for 2026, supporting confidence in the US market. The signal is positive for international steel sentiment, although strong US trade protection limits its direct relevance for European pricing. China imported 28,306 tonnes of steel scrap in September, an increase of 2.8% from a year earlier, indicating a modest rise in overseas scrap imports. FOREX The euro recovered 0.2% to around $1.123 early Tuesday after falling on Monday as unrest and budget concerns in France unsettled European assets. Its limited rebound suggests traders do not yet view the French situation as a wider eurozone crisis, but political risk remains a drag. The dollar index eased 0.2% to 101.80, making dollar-priced metals slightly cheaper for euro buyers. Sterling strengthened to about $1.333, while the yen firmed modestly to around 158.24 per dollar. WATCH TODAY German producer prices and the German and eurozone ZEW confidence surveys may shape expectations for European growth and metal demand. UK employment data and speeches from European Central Bank policymakers Martin Kocher and Olli Rehn are also due. Later, US housing starts and building permits may provide a fresh signal on construction-related metals demand.