Metals Daily

This Morning Copper is trading at $13,930 as of Thursday 06:00, a 1.3% discount to Wednesday's official close of $14,109, pulling back sharply after an eight-session rally that took the metal to within striking distance of its January record. Tin is the biggest casualty overnight, down 1.8% to $54,933 against Wednesday's $55,959 close. Nickel has shed 1.4% to $18,719, while aluminium is essentially flat at $3,731 (cash). Zinc is the sole gainer, up 1.1% to $3,550, supported by supply concerns after a fire at Latin America's largest zinc smelter. Lead is unchanged at $2,009. Macro & Geopolitics The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing dominates the macro landscape this morning. Trump arrived with a CEO entourage including Elon Musk and Jensen Huang, aiming to maintain the fragile trade truce and seek Chinese help on the Iran war, now in its 13th week. U.S. PPI posted its biggest gain in four years in April, following CPI data showing annual inflation at a three-year high of 3.8%. Traders have priced out Fed rate cuts entirely, with an 80% probability of a hike next year. The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as new Fed chair as the central bank confronts intensifying price pressures. Brent crude holds above $105, keeping energy-driven inflation front and centre for European manufacturers. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has breached 5%, its highest since 2007. Base Metals Wednesday's record close for the LME six-metal index now faces a reality check as profit-taking hits copper and nickel overnight. TD Securities noted that supply across copper, aluminium, nickel and zinc is being disrupted by Middle East smelting losses, sulphur shortages and surging energy costs, with CTA funds positioned long across the complex. Copper retains a ~$600/t premium on COMEX over LME ahead of a potential U.S. tariff decision on refined copper expected by end-June. Aluminium touched a four-year high of $3,690 on Wednesday as the Iran war disrupts Gulf producers, while 30,000 tonnes of fresh warrant cancellations in Malaysia tightened LME stocks. Zinc found support after a fire at Nexa Resources' Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru — Latin America's largest — temporarily suspended operations, with four workers injured. In Indonesia, Chinese firms warned President Prabowo that tighter nickel ore quotas cut by over 70% for large mines, revised pricing formulas and heavier taxes threaten future investment. Precious Metals Gold is consolidating around $4,700, down 0.5% on Wednesday as war-driven inflation eroded rate-cut expectations. Spot gold was last at $4,706.70, with traders noting a downward bias but also a buying window. India's shock tariff hike on gold and silver to 15% from 6% triggered record physical discounts above $200/oz in Mumbai as investors rushed to lock in profits, while smuggling margins widened to a record 18%. Silver hit a two-month high above $89 before retreating, and platinum surged to touch its highest since mid-March. Equinox Gold's $18.5 billion all-stock acquisition of Orla Mining underscores the sector's consolidation drive toward safer jurisdictions. Steel Brazilian steelmaker CSN reported a Q1 net loss of 555 million reais on revenues of 10.6 billion reais, meeting estimates at the EBITDA level. Honda posted its first annual operating loss in nearly 70 years — 414.3 billion yen — driven by U.S. tariffs and over $9 billion in EV restructuring charges, a reminder of the downstream demand pressures facing steel-intensive auto supply chains. In the Gulf, Abu Dhabi's BILDCO announced plans for one of the emirate's largest smart ready-mix concrete platforms targeting one million cubic metres of annual capacity. Rare Earth Metals USA Rare Earth reported Q1 2026 financial results, while Bayan Mining and Minerals signed an MoU with US Critical Materials Corp to advance rare earth processing technologies. Scotiabank raised its target on First Quantum Minerals, and Stifel lifted Neo Performance Materials' target to C$38 from C$26, reflecting growing investor appetite for non-Chinese critical minerals supply. Emerita Resources announced its IBW project in Spain has entered the public consultation phase for its exploitation permit, a potential step forward for European domestic supply. Forex The dollar index firmed to 98.49 on Wednesday, hitting a two-week high after the hot PPI print reinforced expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy. The euro slipped 0.22% to $1.1711, near its weakest in a week, as the rate differential narrative shifts further in the dollar's favour. Sterling weakened to $1.3523 amid political uncertainty around PM Starmer. The yen held at 157.88 per dollar with traders on intervention watch after recent sharp spikes attributed to Tokyo officials. The Chinese yuan strengthened to a three-year high against the dollar as the Trump-Xi summit got underway, a move that could support Chinese import demand for metals. Watch Today UK Q1 GDP and March industrial production data land at 07:00 CET — critical for gauging the Iran war's impact on European manufacturing. U.S. retail sales and weekly jobless claims follow at 14:30 CET. Headlines from the Trump-Xi summit will dominate sentiment, particularly any signals on Iran, trade tariffs, or Nvidia chip sales to China. Fed speakers Schmid, Hammack, Williams and Barr are all scheduled. Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill also speaks.