Metals Daily

This Morning Copper is trading at $13,692 as of Monday morning, a 0.7% premium to Friday's official cash close of $13,600, with the three-month contract at $13,711 versus Friday's $13,636. Tin is again the standout performer, with cash up $436 or 0.8% to $55,665 and three-month at $55,875. Aluminium cash has firmed 0.4% to $3,800 against Friday's $3,768, while zinc has added 0.4% to $3,533. Nickel is up a modest 0.2% at $18,905 and lead is essentially flat, edging up just $1 to $2,009. The complex opens the week broadly firmer, though gains are tempered by stalled Gulf peace talks and a flat Chinese manufacturing PMI. Macro & Geopolitics The Iran ceasefire extension remains the dominant macro variable for European markets this week. President Trump said Friday he would decide soon on a proposed deal, but silence since then has unsettled markets, with Defence Secretary Hegseth warning the U.S. could restart attacks if no agreement is reached. Brent crude rose over 2% to around $93 in early Monday trade, reinforcing inflationary pressures that are complicating the outlook for central banks on both sides of the Atlantic. China's official manufacturing PMI came in at exactly 50 for May — the boundary between expansion and contraction — underscoring tepid demand from the world's largest metals consumer. The ISM manufacturing survey and U.S. payrolls on Friday are the key data points this week, with markets pricing a 50-50 chance the Fed will need to hike rates by year-end. Base Metals Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 copper price target to $13,735/t from $12,465, citing weaker-than-expected mine production globally and a tighter-than-expected market outside the U.S. Comex copper stocks have risen over 9% since mid-April to 640,181 short tons, with Goldman projecting U.S. inventories to increase by around 900,000 tons this year compared with an earlier estimate of 550,000 tons, indicating a regional dislocation is set to re-emerge between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Aluminium's supply crisis continues to simmer, with LME inventories around 339,000 tonnes and the market in backwardation — cash premiums over three-month contracts widened to roughly $97/t in late May, the widest since 2007. Tin remains elevated near all-time highs despite improving fundamentals; as Andy Home noted in his Reuters column, LME stocks are up 60% year-to-date at 8,660 tonnes and time-spreads are in contango, yet speculative interest — particularly on the Shanghai market — continues to drive prices on the "internet metals" investment meme. Precious Metals Gold slipped 0.3–0.4% to around $4,518–4,527 in early Monday trade, pressured by a firmer dollar and rising oil prices. The metal hit a two-week high in the previous session but failed to hold gains as the stronger greenback made bullion more expensive for non-dollar holders. Fed Vice Chair Bowman warned Friday that the Middle East war's economic impact could lead to persistent inflation requiring tighter policy. Analysts at KCM Trade noted gold still has potential to reach $5,500 by year-end should oil prices ease and the dollar weaken. Silver rose 0.4% to $75.58, platinum gained 1.1% to $1,937, and palladium added 1.2% to $1,371. Steel The EU's new steel import regime takes effect on 1 July, replacing the existing WTO safeguard measures that expire on 30 June. Duty-free import volumes will be capped at 18.3 million tonnes annually — a 47% reduction from 2024 levels — with a 50% tariff on volumes exceeding the quota, doubled from the previous 25%. In China, Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil futures advanced 0.6–0.7% on Monday, supported by a surge in coking coal prices to 19-month highs after the deadly Shanxi mine accident triggered sweeping safety inspections and production suspensions across China's top coal-producing province. Arabian Pipes signed a SR 62 million contract with Saudi Aramco for steel pipe supply. Rare Earth Metals China's rare earth talent pipeline remains a formidable strategic asset, with a Reuters investigation revealing an ecosystem of over 40 specialist laboratories and at least 11 universities enrolling more than 500 students annually in dedicated rare earth degree programmes. Beijing has tightened restrictions on contact between industry professionals and foreigners, with some technicians ordered to surrender passports. The MIIT's draft enforcement framework published in late April introduced penalties for quota breaches including licence revocation, reinforcing administrative control across the entire value chain from mine to magnet. Forex The euro stands at $1.1645, hemmed in a narrow $1.1585–$1.1661 range over the past week, weighed down by Europe's energy import dependency amid elevated oil prices. ECB meeting minutes revealed some policymakers would have backed a rate hike in April had it been proposed, and money markets are now almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point increase at the 11 June meeting. The dollar is broadly steady, with dollar-yen at 159.45 — just below the 160 level where Japanese intervention risk intensifies. Sterling is holding firm against the euro around 1.153, supported by the 175-basis-point rate gap between the Bank of England and the ECB. Watch Today EU unemployment data for April (09:00 GMT), final eurozone manufacturing PMIs, and German retail sales are due this morning. The U.S. ISM manufacturing survey for May (14:00 GMT) is the key afternoon release. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivers his Computex keynote in Taipei, which could move broader risk sentiment given the AI sector's outsized influence on equity markets. Multiple Fed speakers are scheduled throughout the week ahead of Friday's payrolls report.