Metals Daily

This Morning Base metals began Tuesday on firmer ground, with all six contracts trading above Monday’s official close. Lead led the move, gaining 1.7% to $1,905 a tonne, while nickel rose 0.4% to $16,050. Copper, aluminium and zinc each added about 0.2%, reaching $14,446.50, $3,251 and $3,862 respectively. Tin recorded the smallest increase, up 0.1% at $53,735, suggesting a broad but cautious rebound after Monday’s selling. Macro & Geopolitics The main pressure remains the rising cost of energy and borrowing. Brent crude held near $107 a barrel as there was still no breakthrough in efforts to end the seven-month US-Iran conflict, keeping inflation concerns alive. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.27%, its highest in 19 years, while markets priced in a more than 70% chance of another Federal Reserve rate increase in October. Australia also raised interest rates to a 15-year high. For European metal businesses, this mix means expensive fuel, freight and finance, while the stronger dollar raises the euro cost of internationally traded raw materials. Base Metals Copper recovered modestly after Monday’s sharp fall, but buying remained limited by the strong dollar, high oil prices and uncertainty over Chinese demand. Many Chinese users have completed restocking before the National Day holiday and are now purchasing only what they immediately require. Longer-term demand remains healthier in manufacturing, batteries and power networks: China’s combined imports of base and minor metals rose 11% in January-August, although refined copper imports fell by about 11% as domestic production increased. A possible strike at Chile’s Centinela copper mine adds some supply risk. Aluminium, zinc, nickel, lead and tin also firmed this morning, but the rebound outside lead remains small. Precious Metals Gold edged 0.4% higher to around $4,131 an ounce but remained close to a more than seven-week low after Monday’s heavy decline. High bond yields and expectations of further US rate increases continue to reduce demand for gold and other non-yielding precious metals. Silver fell 0.9% to $60.42, platinum lost 1.3% to about $1,698 and palladium slipped 0.8% to roughly $1,205. Progress in US-Iran talks could lower energy costs, but it could also reduce safe-haven demand for gold. Steel Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe aims to at least triple its core profit over the medium term through job and capacity cuts, helped by tighter European barriers against low-priced Asian steel. The company expects European demand to remain stable and says new factories and supply chains established by Chinese carmakers could create around 900,000 tonnes of annual EU automotive flat-steel demand by 2033. This could support regional steel consumption, although high power costs and expensive financing remain major obstacles for mills. Rare Earth Metals Efforts to build Western rare-earth and critical-material supply chains are continuing. US minerals-processing startup Valor hired a former vice president of engineering at Redwood Materials as it prepares to open a pilot plant in Houston by the end of 2026, with commercial plans expected next year. Kazakhstan also offered Germany closer cooperation on strategic raw materials and joint processing chains. Kazakhstan currently produces 21 of the 34 materials classed as strategically important by Europe, making it a potentially useful alternative supplier as European buyers try to reduce dependence on China. Forex The euro held near $1.1360 and has lost about 2% during September, while the dollar remained on course for a monthly gain. High US yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening continue to favour the dollar. The yen traded near 157.50 per dollar despite warnings from Japanese officials about excessive weakness, while the Australian dollar barely moved after the central bank raised rates. For European scrap traders, a softer euro increases the local cost of primary metal, fuel and freight, offering some support to euro-denominated scrap values. Watch Today Final eurozone consumer-confidence data are due this morning. Later, US job-openings and consumer-confidence figures could change expectations for the Federal Reserve’s October rate decision. Fed officials John Williams and Austan Goolsbee are also scheduled to speak, with any firm comments on inflation likely to move the dollar and metals.