Metals Daily

This Morning Nickel is the strongest LME metal early this morning, trading 0.7% above Thursday’s official close at $15,555 a tonne. Zinc and aluminium are each up about 0.4%, at $3,739.50 and $3,119.50, while copper has gained 0.3% to $14,288. Tin is down 0.1% at $54,200, and lead is virtually unchanged at $1,820. The firmer start comes despite a strong dollar and caution before key U.S. employment figures. Macro & Geopolitics Global borrowing costs remain the main pressure point for metals demand. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.25% after reaching 5.34% on Thursday, its highest since 2002. Markets expect the U.S. economy to have added 90,000 jobs in September, with unemployment holding at 4.1%. In Europe, concern over France’s public finances pushed the gap between French and German borrowing costs above 140 basis points. Brent crude remains above $102 a barrel amid a wider U.S. military buildup in the Middle East and China’s suspension of oil-product exports, raising energy and transport cost risks for European industry. Base Metals Copper has recovered modestly, supported by a 12.8% annual fall in Chilean output during August, possible strike action at Escondida and a partial suspension of operations at Codelco’s Radomiro Tomic mine following a fatal accident. Chinese exchange stocks are also near their lowest since January 2024. Even so, copper is heading for its worst week since April as the strong dollar and high borrowing costs outweigh supply concerns. Aluminium is edging higher after touching a 12-week low on Thursday, but faster Gulf smelter restarts and planned Indonesian capacity continue to weigh on the longer-term outlook. Nickel leads this morning’s gains, zinc is firmer, lead is flat and tin has eased. Precious Metals Gold is near $4,184 an ounce and remains on course for a second weekly decline as high Treasury yields and a firm dollar reduce its appeal. The U.S. payroll report will be important: stronger employment or wage figures could revive expectations of further Federal Reserve rate increases. Silver has risen 0.5% to about $61.18, platinum is up 0.6% at $1,734.44 and palladium has gained 0.9% to $1,181.93, although all three are still set for weekly losses. Steel Trade policy remains the main steel-market issue. G20 trade ministers broadly agreed that structural excess industrial capacity needs to be addressed, but they failed to produce a joint statement on the issue. The European Union warned that low-priced Chinese exports could put European steel and automotive industries at risk within weeks or months. The lack of a common approach increases the likelihood of separate tariffs and trade investigations, creating uncertainty over import availability and pricing for European mills, processors and scrap suppliers. Rare Earth Metals Sunrise Energy Metals plans to move its parent company to the United States and pursue a primary Nasdaq listing. The decision is linked to a conditional commitment of up to $400 million from the U.S. Department of War for the Syerston scandium project in New South Wales. First production is targeted for the first half of 2028, with planned output of about 60 tonnes of scandium oxide annually. The move highlights Western efforts to develop critical-mineral supplies outside China following Chinese export controls. Forex The euro is trading near $1.1235, its weakest level since May 2025, after French budget concerns triggered selling in European bonds and currencies. The dollar index is around 102.09 and close to a 17-month high, making dollar-priced metals more expensive for euro-area buyers. The Swiss franc has also strengthened as investors seek safer assets. The yen remains weak near 158.13 per dollar despite faster Tokyo inflation, which added to expectations of further Japanese interest-rate increases. Watch Today Eurozone preliminary inflation data for September is due at 09:00 GMT. The U.S. employment report follows at 12:30 GMT, with payroll growth, unemployment and wages likely to move the dollar, bond yields and metals. U.S. factory orders are scheduled for 14:00 GMT, while mainland Chinese markets remain closed until October 8.