Metals daily

This Morning Base metals were mixed on Monday compared with Friday’s official close. Zinc led the gains, rising 0.8%, while aluminium added 0.6% and copper advanced 0.5%. Tin was the weakest contract, falling 0.9%, with nickel down 0.2% and lead easing 0.1%. The split market suggests tight physical supply is supporting some metals, while concerns about technology investment and higher US interest rates remain a brake on buying. Macro & Geopolitics Market confidence improved at the start of the week as Asian shares recovered and US equity futures moved higher following Friday’s Wall Street rebound. However, concern about the cost and profitability of AI and data-centre investment has not disappeared. Strong October US employment figures increased the market-implied chance of a Federal Reserve rate rise in December to around 80%, keeping borrowing costs and the dollar in focus. Oil prices eased after President Donald Trump said further attacks on Iran were unlikely while peace talks progressed. Lower energy prices may provide some relief for manufacturers, although the regional security situation remains uncertain. Base Metals Copper recovered as physical availability in China remained tight. The Yangshan import premium reached a record $215 a tonne, while Shanghai-monitored stocks fell to their lowest level since early 2024. These conditions may encourage buyers to restock after price falls, but weaker confidence in AI infrastructure and uncertainty over US copper tariffs remain risks. Tin fell despite an unusually tight physical market: combined London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks are at a four-year low, Indonesian exports have declined and Yunnan Tin’s Gejiu smelter is undergoing maintenance. Aluminium and zinc gained with copper, while nickel and lead slipped as the stronger dollar and rate concerns limited wider buying. Precious Metals Gold rose 1.2% to around $4,113 an ounce as falling oil prices reduced immediate inflation worries and the dollar eased slightly from Friday’s jump. Silver gained 1.4% to $52.57, platinum rose 0.7% to $1,546.83 and palladium added 1.4% to $1,037.58. The recovery remains vulnerable because strong US employment data has increased expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate rise. Tuesday’s US inflation figures will therefore be important for the next move in bullion. Forex The dollar remained close to a one-and-a-half-year high against the euro after strong US job creation revived expectations of another Federal Reserve rate rise. The euro edged 0.1% higher to about $1.115 early Monday, but this followed a 0.7% fall on Friday. Sterling also gained slightly to around $1.336. For European scrap and metal buyers, the euro’s weak level continues to raise the local-currency cost of dollar-priced material, even when international metal prices are stable. Watch Today The euro-zone Sentix investor-confidence index is due on Monday, alongside German trade figures and French and German government debt auctions. These releases may influence the euro and European bond yields, although attention is already shifting towards Tuesday’s US consumer inflation report.