metals daily (EN)

This MorningLead gained more than 0.5% on this Friday morning. Tin just lifted a little bit, but copper and nickel remained pretty much unchanged overnight. Aluminium and zinc both lost a bit so far. What's Moving Markets?Global equities were mixed, as markets continued assessed fresh pivots to economic policy by the White House. President Trump announced a 100% tariff on imports of semiconductors, although companies that build a portion of their goods domestically or signal future investment could be exempted from the levies. Energy markets fell in response to signs of easing geopolitical risks. Renewed supply side issues pushed base metals higher. A weaker USD also boosted investor appetite. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries rose by 2bp to 4.25%, while the USD index was steady at 98.3.The Fed Just Talked About Revaluing Gold — Should We Pay Attention? The Fed just published a very detailed paper on what would happen if countries, including the US, revalued their gold reserves to current market prices. The Paper: “Official Reserve Revaluations: The International Experience” Published by the Fed. Cites Germany, Italy, South Africa, Lebanon, Curacao. Breaks down accounting mechanics of turning gold’s unrealized gains into budget relief. Revaluing gold could unlock $850bn in paper gains for the US. Other countries have already done it — sometimes successfully, sometimes not. It’s a one-off fix, not a structural reform — but it buys time. And in a fiscal firestorm, time is everything.Precious metals were mixed, but gold was supported by escalating trade tensions and growing expectations for US interest rate cuts. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari signalled the need for rate cuts amid a slowing US economy. Jobless claims data reinforced that view, with both initial and continuing claims topped forecasts, with the latter hitting a three-year high. Traders now see a 91–93% chance of a 25bp Fed rate cut in Sep, according to CME FedWatch. Global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $3bn in Jul, down from the nearly $8bn the month before. European funds led the inflows in the month, followed by North American and Asia funds. YTD net inflows now total over $41bn.Data reported by the People's Bank of China showed its gold reserves rose by 2t in Jul - the ninth consecutive month of increases. This lifts YTD net purchases to 21t, with total gold holdings now hitting the 2,300t mark. Czech National Bank gold reserves rose to 64t in Jul, up almost 2t compared to end-June This extends its monthly gold buying streak to 29 months. YTD net purchases now 12t; total holdings at 64t.Base metals were rangebound as the market monitors signs of progress in US-China trade talks ahead of a 12 Aug deadline, with President Trump even hinting at a possible summit with President Xi if negotiations keep moving. Copper miner Codelco has asked Chile's mining regulator for permission to reopen a part of its flagship El Teniente mine after a collapse last week that killed six people. Codelco suspended mining operations at El Teniente, the world's biggest underground copper mine, which produced more than 300kt last year. However, Chile’s mining regulator has mandated that several investigations must be completed before it allows underground mining operations to resume. China's refined copper imports +9% YoY at 480kt in Jul, with concentrates imports +18% at 2.56Mt as smelters boosted purchases and capacity expansions upped demand. Strong exports and power grid investments are boosting demand for copper.Iron ore iron ore remained resilient and continues to hover around the $100/t level. While current market dynamics and future outlooks generally suggest downward pressure on iron ore prices, the market has historically demonstrated resilience against such fundamental factors. The Chinese steel industry is gradually tightening due to capacity reductions in the least efficient segments of the supply chain. This tightening is supporting steel prices, which, in turn, positively influence iron ore, despite sector-specific supply-demand imbalances.