Morning Update

This morningOvernight moves were modest across the LME complex. Copper gained the most in absolute terms (+$55, +0.57%), tin followed with a +$238 rise (+0.68%), and lead was up nearly +1%. Aluminium, nickel, and zinc saw smaller upticks of 0.25%, 0.07%, and 0.21% respectively. Overall, all six base metals traded higher versus yesterday’s closes.What’s Moving Markets?Global stocks edged higher as investors weighed the latest economic data alongside Nvidia’s earnings, widely seen as a bellwether for developments in artificial intelligence. Tensions rose in Washington after Fed Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit against President Trump over his attempt to dismiss her from the central bank, while Trump continued pressing for lower interest rates. At the same time, leading indicators pointed to accelerating services inflation ahead of today’s release of PCE data. Commodity markets were largely subdued as a stronger US dollar dampened sentiment, although oil managed to climb on signs of firmer demand. In fixed income, yields on 10-year Treasuries fell three basis points to 4.21%, while the dollar index weakened by half a percent to 97.8.In the United States, GDP growth for the second quarter was revised higher to an annualised 3.3%, a sharp rebound from the 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. The revision from the initial 3.0% estimate reflected stronger investment and consumer spending, partly offset by lower government expenditure and higher imports. Growth was mainly supported by a steep fall in imports, which add positively to GDP calculations, and by firmer household consumption, while weaker investment and exports dragged on the figure.Base metals ended the session on a steady note, helped by the positive tone in equity markets but still cautious on trade and tariff risks. In Chile, the workers’ union at BHP’s Escondida mine, the world’s largest copper operation, raised safety concerns after two accidents involving autonomous trucks in recent weeks, including a collision with machinery on 25 August and an earlier overturning.Iron ore prices strengthened as expectations of firmer demand combined with reports that China will move to cut steel production between 2025 and 2026. According to an official planning document reviewed by Reuters, the world’s top steel producer will strictly curb new capacity and scale back existing output to tackle overcapacity, which has depressed prices and fuelled protectionist backlash abroad.Gold continued to hover near record highs, supported by political and institutional uncertainty and expectations of Fed easing. Market pricing now suggests an 89% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, up from 82% last week, after comments from New York Fed President John Williams reinforced Chair Powell’s recent hints at Jackson Hole. Traders are waiting for Friday’s PCE inflation data, expected to show annual growth of around 2.6% for the headline figure and 2.9% for the core measure. Silver and platinum group metals followed gold higher.