Theme of the Day: Global copper market in 5kt deficit in Jan-Jul 2026 - ICSG

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data on world copper supply and demand for July in its September 2026 Copper Bulletin. The world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage and excluding changes in bonded and unreported stocks, showed a preliminary surplus of around 32kt in Jan-Jul 2026, compared with a surplus of around 157kt in the same period of 2025. Adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks, the global refined copper market showed a deficit of around 5kt. Mine production Preliminary data indicates that world copper mine production declined by 1% in Jan-Jul. Concentrate production fell by 2%, more than offsetting a 3.6% increase in SX-EW production. Although several new and ramping-up projects supported global output, this was offset by significant declines in Chile, the DRC and Indonesia. Chile: Mine production declined by 7%, mainly due to lower output at El Teniente, Escondida and Spence. Concentrate production fell by 8.8%, while SX-EW output declined by 0.5%. Indonesia: Concentrate production fell by 29%, as Grasberg output remains constrained following the severe mud rush incident in September 2025. DRC: Mine production was broadly unchanged. SX-EW output increased by around 6%, while concentrate production fell by around 30%, mainly due to lower production at the Kamoa mine following the 2025 seismic event. Peru: Mine production increased by 2.2%, mainly due to higher output at Antamina. Production at other major mines was either lower or broadly unchanged. Mongolia: Copper concentrate production is estimated to have increased by around 18%, supported by the ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project. Australia: Mine output is estimated to have declined by 10%, mainly due to the closure of the Mount Isa mine in July 2025. Refined copper production World refined copper production increased by around 1.7% in Jan-Jul. Primary production increased by 1%, while secondary refined production from scrap rose by 4.3%. China and the DRC, which together represent around 59% of global refined copper production, are estimated to have increased output by a combined 4.8%. China: +4.6% DRC: +6% World excluding China and DRC: -2.5% Chile: -12.5% Asia excluding China: -2% India: +22% In Chile, electrolytic production from concentrates fell by 32%, affected by smelter operational constraints and maintenance, while SX-EW output declined by 1%. Global secondary refined production increased by 4.3%, mainly due to higher output in China. Refined copper usage World apparent refined copper usage increased by 2.4%. Usage outside China is estimated to have increased by 1%, while Chinese apparent demand, excluding changes in bonded and unreported stocks, increased by 3.5%. Chinese net refined copper imports declined by 10%. China currently accounts for around 59% of total world refined copper usage. Exchange stocks At the end of August 2026, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges — LME, COMEX and SHFE — totalled 997,600 tonnes, the highest level since June 2003. Stocks increased by 253,480 tonnes, or 34%, compared with the end of December 2025. LME: +88,175t COMEX: +238,223t SHFE: -72,914t