Theme of the Day: Global copper market in 98kt surplus in H126 - ICSG

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data on world copper supply and demand for Jun in its Aug 2026 Copper Bulletin. The world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), indicated a preliminary surplus of ~131kt. This compares with a surplus of ~114kt in the same period of 2025. The world refined copper balance adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks suggested a market surplus of ~98kt. Preliminary data indicates that world copper mine production declined by 1.1% in H126, with a decline in concentrate production of 2.6% more than offsetting an increase in solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) output of 4.3%. Although global mine production benefited from additional output from projects ramping up to capacity in a number of countries, global growth was offset by significant declines in concentrate production in Chile, the DRC and Indonesia. Chilean mine production declined by 6.6%, mainly as a result of reduced output at the El Teniente, Escondida and Spence mines. Chilean concentrate and SX-EW production were down by 8% and 1% respectively. In Indonesia, concentrate production declined by 32% as output at the Grasberg mine remains constrained by the impact of a severe mud rush incident that occurred last Sep. Mine production in the DRC is estimated to have remained essentially unchanged: growth of about 8% in SX-EW output was offset by a 34% decline in concentrate production, due to reduced output at the Kamoa mine (impact of a seismic event in 2025). In Peru, copper mine production rose by 2%, mainly due to increases at the Antamina, Las Bambas and Antapaccay mines that more than offset small declines at the Southern Peru Copper, Quellaveco, Cerro Verde and Marcobre operations. Mongolian copper concentrate output is estimated to have grown by about 20% as a consequence of the Oyu Tolgoy underground project ramp-up; Australian mine output is estimated to have declined by 10%, mainly due to the closure of the Mount Isa mine in Jul 2025. Preliminary data indicates that world refined copper production grew by about 2.4% in H126, with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) growing by 2% and secondary production (from scrap) increasing by 4.3%. Production in China and the DRC, which currently represent about 59% of global production, is estimated to have increased by a combined 5.7% (China 5.3% and DRC 7.9%). World refined copper output excluding these two countries declined by about 1.9%. Chilean refined copper production declined by 12%, with electrolytic production (from concentrates) down by 32%, impacted by smelter operational constraints and maintenance, and electrowinning (SX-EW) output lower by 1%. Output in Asia (ex-China) is estimated to have declined by 0.7%, as lower output in Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines offset growth in other Asian countries. Production in India is estimated to have increased by 20% due to improved operating capacity rates and the ramp-up of the Adani refinery. Global secondary refined production (from scrap) increased by 4.3%, mainly due to growth in China. Preliminary data suggests that world apparent refined copper usage increased by 2.3% in H126. World ex-China usage is estimated to have increased by 1%, and Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks) is estimated to have increased by 3.2%. Chinese net refined copper imports declined by 13%. China's share of total world refined copper usage is currently about 59%. As of the end of Jul 2026, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 964,095t, the highest level since Aug 2003. Stocks increased by 219,980t (+29.6%) compared with stocks held at the end of Dec 2025, and were up at the LME (+98,700t) and COMEX (+197,288t) and down at the SHFE (-76,008t).