Daily metals

Copper is trading at $13,695 as of Friday 06:00, a 1.4% discount to Thursday's official cash close of $13,895, leading a broad selloff across the complex. Tin is down $226 at $54,306 (–0.4%), while nickel has shed 1.1% to $18,516 and zinc has slipped 1.1% to $3,528. Aluminium is the most resilient of the majors, off just 0.7% at $3,719, while lead has eased 0.8% to $2,003. The pullback follows a strong run of gains earlier in the week and comes as rising oil prices, a firmer dollar and spiking Treasury yields weigh on risk appetite heading into the weekend.

The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing wraps up today, having produced Boeing jet orders and signals of progress on trade, though Xi warned that Taiwan disagreements could lead to conflict. Oil remains the dominant macro force: Brent crude is up over 5% this week above $106/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut, with ship attacks and seizures continuing despite Iran claiming 30 vessels transited. U.S. Treasury yields have surged — the 30-year cleared 5% at auction for the first time since 2007, and the two-year hit a one-year high — as markets now price a 45% probability of a Fed rate hike this year. Japan's wholesale inflation spiked to 4.9% in April, a three-year high, with nonferrous metal goods prices jumping 37.9% year-on-year. The euro remains under pressure as markets price nearly 90% odds of an ECB rate hike in June after German wholesale prices jumped 6.3% year-on-year in April.

Copper's eight-day winning streak ended Thursday as elevated prices began to curb physical buying in China. SHFE copper stocks have started rebuilding since Tuesday, and the spot premium over exchange prices has flipped to a discount — a clear sign that Chinese buyers are stepping back. Zinc was the standout performer on Thursday, touching a near four-year high of $3,633.50 after a fire at Nexa Resources' 344,400 tpy Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru — Latin America's largest — compounded supply fears already stoked by the Kazzinc blast in Kazakhstan. LME zinc stocks sit at just 110,875 tons, less than three days of global consumption. Nickel remains supported by the sulfur squeeze on Indonesian HPAL producers; Macquarie estimates break-even costs have risen to $18,000/t, while the International Nickel Study Group now forecasts a deficit in 2026 after three years of surplus. In aluminium, Emirates Global Aluminium is in advanced talks to acquire stakes in Oman's 400,000 tpy Sohar Aluminium from TAQA and potentially Rio Tinto, as EGA seeks to expand outside the UAE after losing ~60% of its domestic smelting capacity to the Iran conflict.

Gold fell for a fourth straight session to around $4,620, heading for a weekly loss of roughly 2% as surging oil-driven inflation expectations, a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields squeeze the non-yielding metal. Gold has dropped approximately 13% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began in late February. ANZ lowered its year-end gold target by $200 to $5,600. Silver was hit hardest, plunging over 5% to around $79, while platinum fell to $2,020 and palladium slipped to $1,425. India tightened rules on duty-free gold imports for jewellery exporters, capping imports at 100 kg per licence and imposing new compliance requirements, days after raising gold and silver tariffs to 15%.

India's JSW Steel reported a more than twofold jump in quarterly profit, supported by tariffs on Chinese steel imports that lifted domestic prices and by U.S. tariff reductions that boosted export demand. India's steel consumption rose 10.4% in the quarter, and the company expects 7–9% demand growth in fiscal 2027. In Europe, Volkswagen labour leaders reiterated their "red line" against plant closures while remaining open to partnerships — including with Chinese firms or defence companies — to address overcapacity. Stellantis signed a €1 billion deal with China's Dongfeng to produce Peugeot and Jeep vehicles in China. Codelco's new board, appointed by Chile's Kast government, has been tasked with investigating a production reporting controversy and conducting a financial audit.

USTR Jamieson Greer said in Beijing that rare earth exports from China to the U.S. are improving, though Beijing still drags its feet on some export licences. He noted several large shipments of yttrium — a rare earth only produced in China — have recently arrived in the U.S. after more than a year of shortages affecting the semiconductor and aerospace sectors. Greer said the U.S. is trying to manage differences on rare earths rather than escalate, giving China a "passing grade" on compliance with last October's deal. AMG Critical Materials announced the acquisition of the remaining 71% of Zinnwald Lithium for $56 million, adding European lithium optionality.

The dollar index rose 0.43% on Thursday to 98.89, heading for its best weekly gain in two months at +1.2%, supported by solid U.S. retail sales data and fading rate-cut expectations. The euro fell 0.36% to $1.1668, pressured by the stronger greenback and mounting expectations of ECB rate hikes. Sterling slumped 0.95% to $1.3395 amid a deepening UK political crisis after Health Minister Wes Streeting resigned and called for a leadership contest against PM Starmer. Dollar-yen pushed back above 158 for the first time since intervention, while the yuan hit a new three-year low near 6.78 per dollar.

Trump wraps up his state visit to China — any concrete outcomes on Iran mediation, rare earth commitments, or tariff levels could move markets sharply. U.S. industrial production data for April is due at 14:15 BST. EU reserve assets data is published at 11:00 BST. With Brent above $106 and Treasury yields at multi-month highs, energy market developments over the weekend will set the tone for Monday's open.